A Look At United Parcel Service’s Valuation As Facility Closures And Amazon Pullback Reshape The Business

Simply Wall St

Thu, February 19, 2026 at 11:16 AM GMT+9 3 min read

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UPS

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AMZN

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The latest move by United Parcel Service (UPS) to close 22 union staffed facilities and scale back Amazon related deliveries has put its cost cutting push and union relations in sharp focus for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for United Parcel Service.

UPS shares are trading at US$116.12, with a 30 day share price return of 8.61% and a 90 day share price return of 27.79%. The 3 year total shareholder return of a 23.02% decline shows that recent momentum contrasts with a weaker longer term record as investors weigh cost cuts, union disputes, Amazon exposure and network consolidation.

If this UPS news has you thinking about where parcel and freight demand might intersect with new technology, it could be worth scanning 34 robotics and automation stocks as another way to spot logistics focused opportunities.

With UPS trading at US$116.12, showing recent gains but a weaker 3 year record and a headline value score of 4, the key question is whether the current price still reflects a discount or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 22% Overvalued

United Parcel Service last closed at $116.12, while the most followed narrative fair value sits at $95.21. This sets up a clear valuation gap for readers to weigh.

Management is taking steps to address the pressures through their “Efficiency Reimagined” initiative. If successful, this could stabilize or improve profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that $95.21 figure? The narrative leans heavily on steady revenue gains, firmer margins and a richer earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine over several years to support that outcome? The full story lays out the exact growth path and profitability mix behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $95.21 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there is still a risk that cost cuts, union tensions and higher interest expenses from new debt could weaken the assumptions behind this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this United Parcel Service narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Tell a Different Story

While the most followed narrative pegs fair value at $95.21 and calls UPS overvalued, our DCF model points the other way, with a fair value estimate of $161.82. One view sees risk in a stretched price; the other sees a discount. Which set of assumptions do you trust more?

Story Continues  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

UPS Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

If this push and pull between risks and rewards feels unresolved, take a closer look now and weigh the balance of 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs for yourself.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If UPS has sharpened your focus on risk, reward and price, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other angles the market might be overlooking.

Spot potential mispricings by scanning our list of 53 high quality undervalued stocks, which pairs compressed valuations with stronger fundamentals than the headline price suggests.

Strengthen your income focus by checking out 13 dividend fortresses, a set of companies offering yields from businesses built around sturdier cash generation.

Reduce portfolio stress by reviewing 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores, a collection of stocks filtered for lower risk scores that can help balance more volatile holdings.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include UPS.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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