#ETH走势分析 $BTC $ETH Market Sentiment Shifts Dramatically: 92% Probability Bets on Three Rate Cuts in 2025—What Does This Mean?

Traders are voting with real money. According to the latest futures market data, the probability expectation of the Fed cutting rates three times in 2025 has soared to 92%—this number is not just talk; it represents the collective judgment of mainstream capital on a policy shift.

To be honest, such one-sided bets are rare. The last time a similar situation occurred, the market subsequently experienced extreme volatility.

Once a rate-cutting cycle begins, the entire game changes. Dollar liquidity will gradually be released, and funding costs will decline, which will disrupt valuation logic across all asset classes. Growth tech stocks may become favored again, gold could strengthen as real interest rates fall, and as for cryptocurrencies? History tells us that easing cycles are often when they perform most wildly.

But the question is: why is the market so certain that rate cuts are coming?

Either economic data has started to weaken and growth expectations are showing cracks, or pressures in certain financial sectors have become too significant to ignore. In either case, it’s not as simple as just being a “bullish” signal.

For ordinary investors, this signal is worth paying attention to. Mortgage rates may decline, returns on wealth management products will likely continue to drop, and the corporate financing environment will improve but competition will intensify. Both opportunity and risk are amplified—the key is which side you’re on.

2025’s market is highly likely to be driven by liquidity. The direction is already clear, and what remains is to see who can prepare in advance.