Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin may reach an all-time high in 2026, challenging the four-year cycle theory.

Grayscale Research's latest report shows that Bitcoin is expected to reach an all-time high in 2026, contrasting with the traditional four-year cycle theory. This theory suggests that Bitcoin's price will experience significant pullbacks after each Halving cycle, but Grayscale analysts point out that this bull run has not seen the parabolic rise typical of previous cycles, with institutional funds more concentrated in ETFs and digital asset treasuries, rather than retail investor spot trading.

Since the beginning of October, Bitcoin has experienced a volatility drop of 32%, with prices remaining sluggish for much of November, but recently rebounding to around $86,900. Grayscale indicated that a pullback of 25% or more is not uncommon in a bull run and does not necessarily mean that the long-term trend will turn bearish.

The report points out that the current market structure, macro environment, and favorable policy factors are all different from previous cycles. Potential interest rate cuts and progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation could support further rise in Bitcoin. Tom Lee, the CEO of BitMine, also agrees with this view, stating that the market fundamentals are solid, but the prices have not yet fully reflected their value, making the risk/reward ratio of Bitcoin and Ethereum more attractive. He expects Bitcoin to reach a historical high in January next year.

Overall, Grayscale believes that Bitcoin may break the traditional four-year cycle limit, and long-term investors are still expected to profit from the volatility, while the recent pullback is seen as a normal phenomenon in a bull run. (The Block)