The monthly RSI of Bitcoin has decayed and reached historical patterns; the next bull run may require an adjustment period of over 200 days.

According to the latest market analysis, although Bit rebounded from this month's low to over $90,000 last week, several analysts pointed out that it is still in a bear market structure, and the next bull run may not officially start for another 200-300 days.

Market analyst Axel Adler Jr. revealed this underlying trend through the changes in the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Bitcoin. The data shows that since March 2024, the RSI has fallen from overbought levels to below 60%, reflecting the continuous weakness in Bitcoin price momentum.

From the perspective of historical cyclical patterns, when the RSI shows a similar magnitude of decline, it often indicates that the market will enter a long-term adjustment phase.

According to the historical cycle rules of the previous two rounds, Bitcoin typically takes an average of 200 to 300 days to initiate a new bull run after undergoing such adjustments. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin may not truly bottom out and rebound until the period from June to October 2026.

At the same time, on-chain data synchronization is sending cautious signals. Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson pointed out that the behavior of Bitcoin market whales and retail investors is significantly diverging, with retail investors continuously increasing their holdings, while large investors are either closing their long positions or moderately increasing their short positions.

This type of position structure usually indicates that the price will enter a consolidation phase, and in the short term, the bearish forces may even suppress the price to around $80,000, accumulating chips for future purchases.

As of now, the price of Bitcoin is around $86,500, down 4.85% in the past 24 hours. The short-term correction trend corresponds with the divergence in market positions and the formation of cautious signals on-chain, further confirming the current adjustment characteristics of the market.

In summary, the weak upward momentum of Bitcoin prices and the lack of confidence among whales together create short-term pressure on the market. Furthermore, combined with historical patterns and on-chain data pointing in the same direction, it seems to cast a shadow of needing patience over the mid-term trend of Bitcoin.

#BTC # bull enters bear