Alliance DAO co-founder: The top of the 4-year encryption cycle is emerging, and the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market will dominate the rise and fall.

On November 14, QwQiao, co-founder of Alliance DAO, recently posted on social media stating that despite macro factors such as the Fed's quantitative easing (QE), the reconstruction of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and interest rate cuts indicating a market pump, his intuition suggests that “everything is over.” QwQiao describes crypto as a “self-fulfilling asset class,” emphasizing the inevitability of the four-year cycle prophecy, which puts the market at a frustrating crossroads. As a long-term optimist, he has felt uneasy about the crypto market since mid-September and has observed that most smart traders and long-term investors have turned bearish. Turning to the US stock market, QwQiao views artificial intelligence (AI) as the “only factor” dominating the cycle, far surpassing liquidity indicators and technical signals. He warns that if the AI bubble bursts, the entire market will collapse; conversely, if AI-related stocks continue to rise, the bears will be completely wrong. He compares NVIDIA (NVDA) to Bitcoin in crypto, noting that when AI stocks (especially NVIDIA) rise, funds flow out of crypto and other assets, causing crypto to fall, and vice versa, creating a binary pattern of “AI stocks vs everything.” In the sub-sector, QwQiao is optimistic about the growth momentum of stablecoin startups, believing it far exceeds the speed of AI startups, primarily due to the scarcity of competition in the stablecoin market, while the AI vertical has become crowded with over 50 players. This year, his return on investment in US stocks has significantly outperformed crypto, and he has avoided high-growth but inefficient AI stocks, instead favoring “high-quality companies at reasonable prices.”