In September, 1 billion dollars worth of Crypto Assets will be unlocked! Can the market withstand this supply shock?

According to the latest data from DefiLlama, up to 1 billion USD worth of crypto assets tokens will be unlocked and flow into the market within the next 30 days, creating a potential supply shock. Although the weekly unlocking amount in the short term remains manageable, the concentrated unlocking in mid-September may trigger selling pressure, especially against the backdrop of the FOMC meeting and rising market risk aversion.

Unlock Time and Scale: Mid-September is Key

(Source: DefiLlama)

DefiLlama timetable shows:

August 25: First small amount unlocked, about 40 million Tokens.

August 29: Large-scale unlocking, approximately 280 million Tokens

From early to mid-September: the unlocking volume gradually increases, with a daily maximum reaching 350 million coins.

After September 21: The unlock amount falls below 50 million coins.

Overall, the total unlock amount in the next 30 days is approximately 838.5 million USD, with mid-September being the peak period of supply pressure.

Potential Market Impact: Volatility or Concentrated Outburst

In the short term, approximately $227.8 million will be unlocked weekly, and the market is expected to absorb it. However, the concentrated unlocking in mid-September may become a stress test, especially with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and the FOMC meeting taking place simultaneously, as macro uncertainty may amplify market reactions.

Historical experience shows that large-scale unlocks often trigger:

Short-term price correction (especially for low liquidity tokens)

Support level testing and repricing

Capital flows into defensive assets (such as BTC, ETH)

Key Token and Risk Distribution

(Source: Tokenomist)

Among the Tokens that are about to be unlocked:

TRUMP: The unlocked supply accounts for 6.83%, valued at approximately 178.67 million dollars. If investors choose to sell, it will create significant pressure.

SVL: Also belongs to high-risk supply shock Token

BTC: The unlocked amount in one month accounts for only 0.07% (approximately 1.58 billion USD of the total supply), indicating a stable supply structure.

SOL: Unlocking ratio 0.36%, short-term volatility risk is limited

Overall, blue-chip assets (BTC, SOL) are less affected, while small and medium-cap Tokens are more prone to severe price fluctuations during the unlocking period.

Conclusion

The token unlocking wave in September will become an important test for the market, especially the concentrated release in the middle of the month, which may trigger short-term dumping and increased volatility. For traders, closely monitoring the unlocking schedule, liquidity conditions, and macro events (such as the FOMC meeting) will be key. Robust fund management and risk control may be the best strategy to navigate through this supply shock. For more real-time quotes and market analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.