At the upcoming Fed policy meeting, there may be three possible market scenarios. First, if the Fed Chairman hints at a possible rate cut in September, this will be seen as a positive signal and is likely to drive a rebound in the market, but the probability of this scenario is relatively low, around 20%. Second, if the Chairman states that it is not suitable for a rate cut at the moment, but hints at a possible inclination towards a rate cut in the future, this will also be seen as favourable information, and this scenario has the highest probability, around 50%. Finally, if the Chairman completely avoids mentioning rate cut expectations, or even shows a more hawkish stance, the market may experience a new round of falls, with the probability of this scenario being around 30%.

Considering these possibilities, investors may need to adopt a cautious strategy. For the spot market, a phased buying approach can be considered to reduce risk. In the contract market, however, greater caution may be necessary, looking for opportunities in short-term fluctuations while waiting for a clear shift in market trends.

Regardless, it is crucial to closely monitor the results of the Fed meetings and market reactions before making investment decisions. Investors should develop investment strategies that suit their own risk tolerance and investment goals.