Bitcoin and the Extended Cycle: Growth Opportunities Returning from September 2025

The Bitcoin market is entering an important phase as on-chain data shows that the long-term accumulation trend continues to increase. Analysis from CryptoQuant Korea Community Manager – Crypto Dan indicates that the current Bitcoin cycle has many differences compared to previous bull run phases, especially in terms of longer duration and flatter growth slope. Different Cycle: Long Term Accumulation & Institutional Cash Flow According to realized market cap data, the percentage of BTC held for over 1 year is at a record high. This is a signal that long term buying pressure remains strong, distinctly different from previous cycles – which often surged quickly and peaked in a short time. The main highlight is the participation of financial institutions and investment funds through spot Bitcoin ETFs, along with countries accumulating BTC in reserves. As a result, the price increase cycle is no longer characterized by "short-term speculation" as it was in 2017 or 2021, but instead, it is a prolonged, stable phase that is difficult to disrupt by short-term fluctuations. However, the market still records a phenomenon of capital rotation: when BTC temporarily stabilizes, a portion of the capital shifts to altcoin. This model has repeated several times in the current cycle, in contrast to the period of 2023–2024 when Bitcoin almost monopolized the capital before altcoin gradually returned. Main Catalyst: Monetary Policy & Altcoin ETF Crypto Dan emphasizes that September 2025 could become a turning point as the expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is increasing. On Polymarket, traders are placing an 81% probability that the Fed will cut 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting. This would be a significant boost for risk assets, with Bitcoin and altcoins benefiting directly. In addition, October 2025 is expected to become a "golden" time for altcoin ETFs. According to Bloomberg's ETF analyst – James Seyffart, most spot altcoin ETF registration filings will be due in October, making it a likely time for regulators to approve. This event not only opens the door for Ethereum, Solana, and top altcoins, but also creates additional momentum for new capital flows, contributing to the overall growth of the cryptocurrency market. Seasonal Factors: Autumn – Traditional Bull Season of Bitcoin Historical statistics show that autumn is often a positive period for Bitcoin. When combining seasonal factors with: The loose monetary policy ( rate cut from the Fed ), Newly approved ETFs, Long term accumulation trend of institutions, the market is converging many favorable factors to initiate a new bullish wave by the end of Q3 and Q4/2025. Conclusion: New Cycle, New Opportunity The emergence of financial products such as ETFs, along with the sustainable participation of institutions and businesses, has completely changed the structure of the Bitcoin cycle. Instead of "hot increases - shocking declines", the current market is characterized by an expanding, sustainable bull market with less extreme volatility. Therefore, any correction during the transition period can be seen as an attractive accumulation opportunity for medium and long term investors. With the combination of interest rate cuts, approval of altcoin ETFs, and positive seasonal factors, the outlook for Bitcoin and the entire crypto market in the fall – winter of 2025 is being strongly reinforced.