Bitcoin Balances on a Knife-Edge as Macro Events Loom

Bitcoin is trading just shy of its all-time high as analysts warn that short-term holders face mounting pressure ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. The world’s largest cryptocurrency sits 9% below its November 2021 peak of $124,128, with crucial support levels now under test.

Short-Term Holder Stress Intensifies

According to data from The Block, bitcoin has dropped more than 4.5% over the past month amid heightened volatility and uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy. Roughly 90% of BTC supply remains in profit—a historically significant threshold. Analysts caution that slipping below this level has often marked the beginning of corrective phases, either short- or long-term.

Glassnode’s latest report highlights a six-month trading range with support between $107,000 and $108,900 and resistance around $113,600—the cost basis for three-month holders. Bitcoin is also trading below the one-month cost basis of $115,600, signaling pressure on newer investors. Relief rallies could be met with resistance, as stressed holders look to exit at breakeven.

“Currently, Bitcoin trades beneath the cost basis of both the one-month and three-month cohorts,” Glassnode wrote. “Any relief rally is therefore likely to encounter resistance as short-term holders seek to sell into strength.”

Macro Uncertainty Shapes Market Sentiment

The current setup comes amid a cautious turn across global risk assets, following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week. Market participants are bracing for the release of the second estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP, alongside upcoming labor market data, inflation figures on September 11, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 17.

Analysts suggest that a breakdown below support could open the way toward $93,000–$95,000, while a clean breakout above $112,000 with strong volume may pave the way toward $116,000.

Institutional Demand Offsets Selling Pressure

Despite near-term uncertainty, structural demand for bitcoin remains strong. Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, noted that U.S. spot ETFs continue to absorb supply, with inflows of $81.3 million into bitcoin funds and $307 million into ether funds over the past day.

ETFs, corporates, and governments are collectively acquiring roughly 3,600 BTC daily—around four times the rate of miner issuance. Japanese firm Metaplanet has also announced plans to raise nearly $881 million to purchase bitcoin in September and October, creating a fresh wave of institutional demand heading into Q4.

Meanwhile, network fundamentals remain robust. Hashrate continues to hit new all-time highs, reflecting miner confidence even as short-term holders face mounting stress.

Outlook: Neutral to Cautious

Alongside bitcoin, ether is consolidating around the $4,500–$4,600 range with steady ETF inflows, while Solana holds above the $200 psychological level, underscoring its role as a high-beta leader during periods of risk appetite.

Still, analysts urge caution. “Bitcoin and crypto balances on a knife-edge,” Misir said. “The strategy for now is to maintain a neutral-to-cautious approach while waiting for confirmed breakouts from key levels, with ETH maintaining its leadership in the near term.”