93% Cycle Has Passed: Countdown 60 Days Before Bitcoin Reaches Historical Peak

Bitcoin has set a new historical milestone by surpassing 124,000 USD for the first time earlier this month, marking the latest peak in the current bullish cycle. However, the excitement lasted only for a short-term. Shortly after, the market quickly entered a phase of extreme volatility, with many strong adjustment sessions causing the price to drop below 109,000 USD at one point – a fall of over 12% in just a few days. This development clearly reflects the tug-of-war between two sides: one side is the buying force from investors who believe in long-term growth prospects, while the other side is the profit-taking pressure and caution from the short-term speculative group. Such strong volatility is often a signal that the market is entering a sensitive phase, where any fluctuations in capital flows or macro news can trigger a chain reaction. While the overall expectation of investors still leans towards the scenario of Bitcoin continuing to maintain a bullish trend, seasonal adverse factors in August – September, which usually record poor performance, along with cyclical risks as the bullish cycle has passed most of the historical trajectory, are creating significant barriers. It is the combination of extreme euphoria after a new record and the pressure of cyclical adjustments that makes the upward momentum of Bitcoin fragile and difficult to sustain. The bullish cycle has completed more than 90% According to the latest data, the current bullish cycle of Bitcoin has gone about 93% of the way, indicating that the market is very close to the climax stage. Based on historical patterns, the peak of the cycle is likely to form between late October and mid-November 2025 – which is less than two months away. Famous cryptocurrency analyst Cryptobirb emphasizes that the current market is at the "final stage" of the bullish trend. His argument is based not only on technical indicators but also combines the halving cycle, historical patterns, and seasonality – three factors that have always shown clear repetition in Bitcoin's past. Evidence from the historical cycle The current bullish cycle was triggered after the halving event on April 19, 2024, which reduced the mining reward by half and had a strong impact on the supply. Looking back at history, previous cycles had very different durations: 2010–2011: 350 days2011–2013: 746 days2015–2017: 1,068 days2018–2021: 1,061 days Currently, the 2024–2025 cycle has lasted 1,007 days. Based on the historical reference frame of (1.060–1.100 days ), the market is approaching the expected timeframe for the cycle peak. The halving factor reinforces the scenario Not only the duration, but the data surrounding the period after halving also reinforces this scenario. In the previous three cycles, Bitcoin usually reached its peak between 366 to 548 days after halving. If this formula is applied to the halving event in April 2024, the reasonable period for the price peak to occur will fall between 19/10 – 20/11/2025. In other words, both the movement timeframe of the cycle and the timeframe after the halving are converging, indicating that Bitcoin is very likely to reach its peak in Q4 of this year. This is a phase where the market often sees extreme euphoria before transitioning to a correction. Risk of deep correction after the peak Although the prospect of Bitcoin reaching a new price peak in Q4/2025 is widely agreed upon by many analysts, the risk of a deep correction period afterward is almost an inevitable scenario. Analyst Cryptobirb warns that if Bitcoin does indeed peak within the expected timeframe, investors need to prepare themselves for a prolonged bear market. Lessons from previous cycles Historical data shows: After the peak in 2011, Bitcoin corrected by more than –93% and took nearly 400 days to form a new bottom. After the peak in 2013, the drop was about –86%, lasting over a year. After the peak in 2017, Bitcoin plummeted –84% over approximately 370 days. Most recently, the cycle from 2021 to 2022 saw a drop of about –77%, with a correction period of more than 400 days. On average, past bear market cycles typically last 370–410 days, with a common drop of around –66% to –80% from the peak. If this scenario repeats, assuming Bitcoin establishes a new peak in the range of 125,000 – 135,000 USD, then an average correction could pull the price back to the area of 40,000 – 55,000 USD before finding a stable bottom. This means that many investors chasing the price at high levels will face the risk of significant losses. Market sentiment and capital rotation A notable feature of down cycles is the rapid reversal of sentiment: from extreme euphoria at the peak to pessimism, even panic, when prices adjust sharply. At the same time, capital often shifts from altcoins to Bitcoin, and then withdraws from the market, creating a double drop across the entire ecosystem. Therefore, although the current phase still opens up great opportunities in the short-term, long-term investors need to recognize the reality that a deep correction cycle will almost certainly occur after a new peak is established. Risk management and preparing defensive strategies are key factors to avoid being caught in a prolonged bearish spiral. Seasonal calculations support the peak scenario in Q4 In addition to the cyclical factor and halving, the seasonality (seasonality) is also reinforcing the scenario of Bitcoin reaching its peak in Q4/2025. Historical statistical data indicates that the price movement of Bitcoin shows a quite distinct repetition according to different periods of the year. August - September: Historically weak period In most cycles, August and September are usually the period when Bitcoin performs the worst. This coincides with the summer and early autumn seasons, which often see reduced trading volumes due to institutional investors participating less in the market, while also being susceptible to negative impacts from macro factors such as monetary policy news, the FED, and global liquidity fluctuations. On average over the past 10 years, Bitcoin's performance in September has typically been in the negative zone, reinforcing the notion that this is the "weakest month" for this cryptocurrency. October - November: Peak growth season Conversely, October and November are viewed as the "golden season" for Bitcoin, as historical data shows the probability of bullish movement during this period is significantly higher. October often marks the beginning of a strong upward trend, sometimes referred to as the "Uptober" phenomenon, while November has repeatedly witnessed breakout events that create historical peaks like in 2013 and 2021(. The psychological factor also plays an important role: investor excitement tends to rise as we enter Q4, which is the period when institutional and personal capital inflow increases, while also anticipating a "year-end rally". It is noteworthy that this favorable seasonal period coincides with the timeframe in which many models predict Bitcoin will reach its peak, specifically from the end of October to mid-November 2025. The alignment between historical data, seasonality, and the halving cycle further enhances the reliability of the scenario that Bitcoin is moving towards a new price peak in Q4. The market platform remains solid. Although Bitcoin prices have fluctuated significantly in the short-term, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that the market foundation remains stable. Technical perspective On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is still holding above the important long-term moving averages – which are considered the "backbone" of the market trend: 50-week SMA: 97,094 USD – serves as a medium-term support, indicating that the current price is still nearly 40% higher. 200-week SMA: 52,590 USD – this historical average is always viewed by investors as the "boundary between a bull market and a bear market," and currently Bitcoin is still maintaining double this level. Maintaining above these two levels reinforces the argument that the long-term bullish trend remains intact, despite short-term corrections. On-chain perspective On-chain data continues to show that the market is not facing the risk of capitulation: The mining cost is currently around 97,124 USD – close to the 50-week SMA. This means that most miners are still maintaining profitability, minimizing the risk of a massive sell-off. Two indicators NUPL ) Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ( and MVRV ) Market Value to Realized Value ( are both in a safe zone, reflecting that long-term investors are still in a reasonable profit state, not falling into extreme bubble territory but also not under pressure of losses. ETF capital flow perspective A notable drawback is that Bitcoin ETF capital flow has recently shown signs of net withdrawal: on August 21 alone, capital outflows were recorded at 194 million USD. This is a sign of short-term profit-taking pressure, primarily coming from institutional investors who tend to rotate their portfolios. However, from a broad perspective, the total ETF capital flow from the beginning of the year to now has still maintained a strong net inflow, with record-high trading liquidity. This indicates that institutional funds still hold a significant position in Bitcoin, and the short-term capital outflows are not sufficient to change the long-term trend trajectory. Overall, technical factors, on-chain data, and capital flow all reinforce that the market foundation remains solid. The long-term bullish trend of Bitcoin is still intact, while the recent corrections are merely a "breather" for the market after a strong acceleration phase. 60 days to decide According to Cryptobirb's analysis, the Bitcoin market has now entered the 60 most important days of the entire bullish cycle of 2024–2025. This is not only a period where historical patterns, halving data, and seasonality converge, but also a pivotal time to determine whether Bitcoin will truly establish a new peak in history. He emphasized: "The bottom line is: From now until around 15/10 - 15/11/2025, we are getting close to a historic explosion moment. ETF funds may record outflows, but when combining the cyclical factor, halving, and seasonality, the picture still points towards a new peak in Q4." This means that investors are currently facing the most important crossroads: On one hand, if a positive scenario unfolds, the market could enter a phase of extreme euphoria, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all-time high and open up enormous profit opportunities in the short-term. On the other hand, as history has often shown, right after hitting a peak, Bitcoin typically undergoes an adjustment cycle lasting from 370 to 410 days with an average drop of –66%, dragging the entire altcoin market into a downturn. Therefore, the most reasonable strategy at this time is not only to seek breakthrough opportunities but also to proactively build a defensive scenario: identify profit-taking zones, manage portfolio risks, and prepare plans to respond if the market reverses. In other words, the next 60 days will determine the entire remainder of the cycle, clearly distinguishing who will capitalize on the final wave of the bullish market, and who will be caught in the subsequent adjustment whirlpool.