Dogecoin About to Collapse? Analyst Warns: The Buying Side is Out of Time

The short-term bullish trend of Dogecoin may be slowing down, as cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) warns that a collapse has begun and the bullish trend of the memecoin is currently relying on a thin support band around the $0.20 level. In a live stream on August 25, Kevin argued that the structure of DOGE has weakened into a typical post-bull trap, while its fate still depends on the next move of Bitcoin. The Dogecoin bulls are cornered. "This chart does not really determine its own fate. It will follow what Bitcoin and ETH do, mainly Bitcoin," he said, adding that the pattern attracting attention on his screen is "a symmetrical triangle... not a bullish trend after a rally. It is a bearish trend. It usually [will] be broken," a process he noted seems to be happening during the live broadcast.

In his view, the current resistance levels are simply brutal. Above, "the key resistance level... remains unchanged", with the golden pocket resistance still at the level of $0.285–$0.261. This range has constrained the bullish spikes since Q1 and, along with the higher Fibonacci levels—0.703 at around $0.329 and 0.786 at around $0.413—defines the ceiling that buyers have repeatedly failed to convincingly surpass. On the negative side, Kevin marked the 0.195–0.189 dollar range as the "main support zone", aligning Fibonacci 0.5 around the ~0.189 dollar level with DOGE's trend MA lines. "Right now, the price is even supported through the 100-day and 200-day EMA lines," he noted, also pointing out the 200-day SMA line near the ~0.198 dollar level and a bullish channel that has seen "many touches at the tops and bottoms." He warned that if it loses the $0.19–$0.20 range, the path of least resistance will quickly shift downward: "If Dogecoin loses that range, it could very well return to the trend line… at any level from 16 cents," with deeper old support levels around $0.147, $0.137, and the "$0.14–$0.127 range" described as "extremely significant support."

In other words, the "collapse" risk that Kevin warns about is not so much related to the sensational bearish target but rather to the mechanical nature of the DOGE structure if the price drops to $0.19: first the gap at the bottom of the channel near $0.16, then the previous demand will decrease if the momentum accelerates. The context is very important, and Kevin emphasizes that DOGE beta is mainly influenced by macro factors in cryptocurrency. When Bitcoin is bullish while Bitcoin's dominance decreases, DOGE may break out — "Dogecoin had an extraordinary trading day" last Friday, he said, citing an increase of about 11–12% as BTC rose ~3.5% and dominance decreased by more than 0.7%. But "if ETH performs better and is in ETH season, you won't see Dogecoin grow strongly," he warned, explaining that much of DOGE's relative stagnation while the major coins linked to Ethereum and ETH beta coins have led the flow of funds for several months. Therefore, Kevin's strategic roadmap is very clear. First, consider the range of $0.195–0.189 as the boundary between a controlled pullback and a chaotic trend line test. Second, accept that the bullish momentum may be capped below $0.285–0.261 until Bitcoin increases in price and sustainable dominance decreases. Third, avoid the classic liquidity trap of buying in when prices spike due to emotions at the resistance zone. "Don't buy altcoins at high prices," he said. "Allocate to altcoins that are at key support levels," and do so in small increments, being aware of risk instead of overextending when prices decline. Analysts' views on Dogecoin are quite straightforward and timely. The triangle after the bullish phase has started to break; the price range of $0.19–$0.20 is the "lifeline". If it maintains its price, DOGE could stabilize in the bullish channel while waiting for a more friendly price correction led by Bitcoin. If it loses value, "a crash" as defined by Kevin – a spike towards approximately $0.16 and, if pressure continues, will be the support level in the teens – is the next chapter.