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Amazon Stock: A 2040 Bet Worth $960... Or $2,211?
Here’s the math that’s making investors sweat: if Amazon grows at the S&P 500’s historical pace, we’re looking at $960/share by 2040 (644% gain). But swap that benchmark for the NASDAQ-100 tech index? Now we’re talking $2,211—a 1,614% moonshot.
Push forward to 2050 and the divergence gets wilder:
Shorter term? The bull case has Amazon hitting $147 next month and $255 by early January 2024.
The reality check: Amazon’s AWS dominance and cloud footprint make it fundamentally different from the broad market. The real question isn’t whether these numbers are possible—it’s whether Amazon can sustain its edge in an increasingly competitive cloud war. Even after 2022’s rougher year, the long-term thesis hasn’t changed. The upside depends entirely on which growth vector you’re betting on.
TL;DR: $960 vs $2,211 by 2040 isn’t a prediction—it’s a range based on whether you think Amazon grows like the market or like the future.