#美国终止政府关闭 **How much money has the U.S. government shutdown burned over the past 6 weeks?**

The damage from this shutdown is greater than many people imagine. The White House has done the math: the overall economic loss is close to $90 billion, with over 44,000 new unemployed people. Moreover, the extent of "disaster" varies completely by state—California alone lost $12.6 billion, while Texas and Florida combined are close to $14 billion.

**How do institutions view this matter?**

The forecast provided by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office is the harshest: the annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be dragged down by 1.5 percentage points. Goldman Sachs is a bit more optimistic, predicting a decrease of 1.15 percentage points. Oxford Economics and Wells Fargo believe the impact will be between 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points, while JPMorgan's prediction is the most conservative, estimating a decrease of 0.6 percentage points.

But no matter whose numbers are more accurate, one thing is consensus: the drag on economic growth from this halt is real.

**What caused such a big hole?**

The core logic is actually very simple - 2.9 million federal employees are not getting paid, and resident subsidies cannot be distributed. With these people lacking income, consumption shrinks, corporate orders follow suit, and the economic cycle gets stuck.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates that in just the fourth quarter of 2025, real GDP will shrink by $28 billion, and the unemployment rate in October is expected to jump by 0.4 percentage points. The total figures reported by the White House are even more staggering: an economic loss of $89.982 billion, along with 44,200 people unemployed.

**Who was hurt the most? California, Texas, and Florida rank in the top three**

Looking at the specific data from each state, the hardest hit is California - with economic losses exceeding $12.6 billion and an increase of 5,100 unemployed individuals. Texas lost $8.4 billion, and Florida $5.466 billion. Although New York's economic losses did not make the top three, the number of unemployed skyrocketed by 2,600, ranking second.

Other states are not doing much better: Illinois lost $3.576 billion with an increase of 1,700 unemployed; Massachusetts lost $2.442 billion with an increase of 1,000 unemployed; and Arizona's unemployed population also increased by 1,000.

**How much does the government need to supplement after the restart?**

The end of the standstill does not mean a clean slate; the government has to make up for the $54 billion in arrears. How will this money be distributed?

- Arrears in employee salaries: 16 billion (employees on forced leave and those staying on duty each account for half)
- Delayed payment for goods and services: 36 billion (equipment procurement, R&D projects, consulting fees, etc.)
- SNAP Nutrition Assistance: 2 billion (this is a food assistance voucher for low-income groups)

After this wave of operations, the short-term fiscal expenditure pressure will be greater, and the subsequent impact on market liquidity and asset prices still needs to be observed.

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