What does the U.S. government shutdown mean for the crypto market?

Last week, the U.S. federal government officially entered a shutdown starting October 1 — this was due to Congress's failure to timely pass budget appropriations, resulting in approximately 750,000 federal employees being forced into unpaid leave. Similar events have occurred multiple times in history, and while they do not pose a systemic risk in the short term, they are enough to disrupt the risk pricing logic of the market.
From a macro perspective, the direct impact of the shutdown is the interruption of economic data and the rise of policy uncertainty. The Federal Reserve will find it more difficult to assess inflation and employment in the absence of key economic data, thus increasing market bets on "early rate cuts." In fact, during the first week of the shutdown, U.S. Treasury yields fell, gold strengthened, and the dollar fluctuated—typical safe-haven behavior appeared, but the stock market did not show a significant decline, indicating that the market temporarily views this political deadlock as "manageable."
The logic is slightly different for the crypto market. Historically, when traditional risk markets seek refuge due to fiscal or policy chaos, crypto assets like Bitcoin have sometimes benefited briefly, being seen as "decentralized safe assets." However, it is important to emphasize that this correlation usually holds only on the premise that the market believes liquidity will not be tightened. If the standstill extends and leads to liquidity tightness, the crypto market will also come under pressure.

In summary:

Short-term bullish sentiment for assets: expectations of a weaker dollar and rising bets on interest rate cuts may support a rebound in BTC and ETH prices.

Increased mid-term risk: If the shutdown continues, the lack of economic data and policy delays will amplify market volatility.

The long-term key still lies in liquidity and confidence: once the fiscal deadlock affects the debt ceiling, market panic will spread, and crypto assets will find it difficult to remain unaffected.

In other words, this government shutdown is not only a political stunt by the Americans but also a signal for the global capital to reprice. For those of us watching the market, it reminds us that the "safe haven for risk assets" is only temporary, and true safety comes from controlling positions and rhythm.

‍#美国政府 #美国政府停摆风险