46 billion USD Bitcoin and Ether Options are about to expire, the crypto market may face huge fluctuations.

As over $4.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, the cryptocurrency market is bracing for significant price fluctuations. Today's options expiration event is crucial for the short-term price movement of the two major crypto assets. Analysts warn that the September options expiration carries extra weight, as this month has traditionally been associated with poor performance of digital assets and decreased liquidity. Despite a cautious market sentiment, the surge in implied volatility (IV) indicates that traders expect substantial price fluctuations.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Approaches, Involving $14.6 Billion in Funds

Bitcoin (BTC) dominates this round of expiring options with a nominal value of up to $3.38 billion. According to Deribit data, the total open contract volume is 30,447. The maximum pain point (the price at which the most options contracts will expire worthless) is $112,000. Meanwhile, the put-call ratio is 1.41, indicating a preference for bearish positions and a cautious market.

(Expiring Bitcoin Options | Source: Deribit)

Ethereum is also facing a similarly critical options expiration with a nominal value of 1.29 billion dollars. The open interest is 299,744 contracts, with the maximum pain point level at 4,400 dollars. The put-call ratio is 0.77, indicating stronger demand for call options (buying), but analysts noted a significant increase in call options above the 4,500 dollars strike price. Deribit highlighted this skew: "...the flow of funds is more balanced, but the increase in call options above 4,500 dollars leaves upside options."

(Upcoming Expiring Ethereum Options | Source: Deribit)

Greeks. live analysts emphasized the implied Volatility (IV) of Ethereum, pointing out that the short-term IV has surged to around 70%. This indicates that the market's expectation of price Fluctuation has intensified after Ethereum's price corrected by over 10% from its recent peak. Analysts from Greeks.live wrote: "The weakness of the U.S. stock market and the WLFI index has exacerbated market concerns." Similarly, Bitcoin's IV across various maturities has also rebounded to around 40% after a month-long correction. Notably, this pullback has caused Bitcoin's price to drop by over 10% from its all-time high.

However, analysts have observed that traders are adopting a defensive posture. One piece of evidence is that large trades in bearish Options are accelerating, accounting for nearly 30% of today's Options trading volume.

Analysts Warn of Weak September Market

Nevertheless, market sentiment is rapidly changing. Greeks.live emphasizes that September has traditionally been a tough month for the crypto assets market. Institutional rollovers and quarterly settlements usually suppress capital flow. Analysts added, "The options market generally lacks confidence in September's performance."

The current widespread downtrend and the decline of crypto-related stocks have made hedging a major theme. As the options approach expiration, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to gravitate towards their maximum pain levels. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at 111,391 USD, which suggests it may gently rise to 112,000 USD. Ethereum, at the time of publication, is trading at 4,326 USD, showing a similar situation.

With the arrival of today's third quarter delivery month, liquidity patterns and roll-over activities may amplify bidirectional fluctuations. As a result, traders may tend to adopt a defensive posture, preparing for long-term weakness or potential breakouts after expiration settlements. However, the market often tends to stabilize after the options on Deribit expire at 8:00 AM UTC.

The key question remains whether the expiration of options will pin Bitcoin and Ethereum near their current levels or become a catalyst for recovery. In the short term, the dynamics of options may create magnetic pressure since the maximum pain points are located above the current prices. If history repeats itself, September may continue to challenge the bulls, but the market's increasingly defensive posture suggests that any unexpected upward movement may be accompanied by equally aggressive repositioning.

Conclusion

Under the dual impact of over $4.6 billion in Options expiration and uncertainty in traditional markets, Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a critical moment. Although market sentiment is cautious in the short term, the expiration of Options may pull prices toward the maximum pain point, but the potential volatility also offers possibilities for traders seeking opportunities. History shows that September is the "curse month" for Crypto Assets, but the constantly changing market structure and increasing institutional participation may break this pattern. Future price movement will depend on the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, as well as whether the market can find a new direction after the Options expiration.