Comprehensive judgment and future trend prediction for #BTC#

1. Short-term (a few hours to a couple of days): weak fluctuations, with high risks of downside.
· The market is in a weak recovery state after being oversold, but due to the moving averages being in a bearish arrangement and heavy resistance above, the rebound strength is very limited.
· Most likely trend: The price is expected to experience weak fluctuations near the current position (108,250) before testing the key support level of 107,282.7 again. Due to insufficient volume and a downward trend, the probability of breaking this support level is high.
2. Mid-term (a few days to a week): Focus on the gains and losses of key support levels.
· Bearish scenario (higher probability): If the price effectively breaks below the support at 107,282, it is likely to quickly slide towards 106,667 or even lower levels. The deep negative values of MACD also support the view that the medium-term trend will continue to weaken.
· Bullish Scenario (Requires a Major Reversal): To reverse the current weakness, BTC must break through the upper moving average system with strong volume and ultimately conquer the resistance level of 111,878. Based on the current technical pattern, unless there is a significant positive stimulus, achieving this scenario is very difficult.