Analysis of #ETH# market

1. Most likely short-term trend (higher probability):
· Due to the KDJ showing oversold conditions, the price is likely to have a small technical rebound first to test the resistance levels above (such as the EMA30 moving average near 4,431 or the psychological level of 4,500).
· However, due to the overall technical outlook being bearish (price below EMA30, MACD negative), the strength and sustainability of this rebound are questionable. There is a high possibility of a pullback after the rebound. In the short term, it may oscillate between 4,300 - 4,450 to digest the current decline.
2. Bearish Scenario:
· If the rebound is very weak and unable to effectively break through the pressure of the EMA30 moving average, and the trading volume remains sluggish, then the price may fall below the current consolidation platform and continue to seek deeper support levels (such as the 4,200 or even 4,000 mark). This requires a corresponding weakness in the external market (such as the Bitcoin market).
3. Inverted Bullish Scenario (Lower Probability):
· Unless there is a large bullish candlestick (for example, a sharp increase in trading volume, a strong price breakthrough above 4,500, and a stable position above that level), and at the same time, the MACD forms a golden cross, the current short-term downtrend cannot be reversed to an uptrend. Currently, based on the information, this possibility is relatively low.

Summary and Suggestions:

· Short-term: Cautiously bearish. The market has a demand for a rebound from oversold levels, but the overall bearish trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to the performance after the rebound reaches resistance levels.
· Key Position:
4,500
4,200
· Operation:
· Short-term traders: You can try to take a light position to bet on a rebound, but be sure to set a stop-loss (for example, below 4,330), targeting around 4,430. After the rebound reaches the resistance level, observe if there are any signs of stagnation to consider going short.
· Long-term investors: It is recommended to continue observing and wait for clearer directional signals or lower prices before considering accumulating positions in batches.