NVIDIA's Q2 revenue was $46.7 billion, but the data center business fell short of expectations, with H20 chips having no sales to China; Bitcoin is consolidating at high levels, waiting for macroeconomic trends.

NVIDIA's revenue for the second quarter reached $46.7 billion, a year-on-year rise of 56%, but data center revenue once again fell below market expectations, and no H20 AI chips were sold to China. The company improved its profit margins by releasing inventory and announced an additional $60 billion share buyback plan, but the market was still unimpressed by the revenue forecast of $5.4 billion for the third quarter, leading to a drop in share price after hours. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating around $120,000, with the market following the dual impact of tech stock earnings reports and macro policies on capital flows.

[Revenue rise but data centers once again disappoint the market, with sales of chips to China remaining stagnant]

NVIDIA's revenue for the second quarter was $46.7 billion, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 56% increase year-on-year. However, although the core data center business achieved a 17% quarter-on-quarter growth, it still fell short of the market's overly high expectations. Notably, sales of the H20 AI chip to Chinese customers were zero this quarter, and the company relied on the release of prior inventory ($180 million) and $650 million in sales of unrestricted chips to non-Chinese single customers to maintain revenue. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that demand for the Blackwell platform is "exceptionally strong" and pointed out the revolutionary improvement in NVLink rack-level computing power, but this did not alleviate investor concerns.

[Stock operations boost profit margins, buybacks increased to $60 billion]

The company's GAAP gross margin is 72.4%, and the non-GAAP is 72.7%. If we exclude the $180 million gain from inventory release, the non-GAAP gross margin drops to 72.3%. GAAP earnings per share are $1.08, while non-GAAP is $1.05, and after relevant adjustments, it becomes $1.04. Despite strong performance, the stock price still fell in after-hours trading. Nvidia also announced that it returned $24.3 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in the first half of the fiscal year and added a new $60 billion buyback authorization, with the next dividend being $0.01 per share.

[Q3 outlook optimistic but the market still not buying it, Bitcoin and tech stocks correlation under follow]

The company expects third-quarter revenue of $54 billion (±2%), still assuming zero sales of H20 chips in the Chinese market, with expected GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 73.3% and 73.5%, respectively, and operating expenses expected to rise. Despite leading financial metrics in the industry, the market expressed disappointment over the "strong but not overly crazy" rise, as two consecutive quarters of underperformance in the data center business raised questions about the purity of growth.

In the same macro environment, Bitcoin has not synchronized with the fluctuations of tech stocks, but it remains consolidated around the level of $114,000. The market believes that the performance of tech giants like Nvidia and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy jointly influence market liquidity preferences. If tech stocks continue to be under pressure, some funds may flow back into alternative assets like Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin traders are following the changes in market risk appetite after Nvidia's earnings report and the PCE inflation data on Friday to determine the next direction.

【Conclusion: Performance differentiation reflects high market expectations, technology and cryptocurrency assets may show divergence】

NVIDIA's financial report once again indicates that in the context of the market's expectation for "perfect data", even with strong performance, if it does not fully exceed expectations, it will still trigger sell-offs. Its business difficulties in the Chinese market also highlight the ongoing impact of geopolitical policies on the technology industry. On the other hand, while Bitcoin and tech stocks share the macro liquidity backdrop, recent trends show signs of differentiation. Investors need to follow the potential rotation of funds between traditional tech stocks and the crypto market, grasping the balance strategy between changes in interest rate expectations and the fundamentals of the industry.