#比特币市场分析与预测# After analyzing the latest news, I believe that the current rise of Bitcoin is mainly limited by two major factors: first, capital flow and seasonal effects. Institutional funds have largely exited in the summer, with Bitcoin ETF experiencing a net outflow for 5 consecutive months, and an estimated outflow of 1.2 billion USD in August, second only to the historical second-highest outflow in February. Second, the selling pressure from ancient Whales. These early investors have a very low cost, and every time they sell 1 BTC, it requires over 110,000 USD in new funds to take over. This huge cost difference and supply volume mean that pushing up the price requires more new funds. In the short term, the market needs to digest these tens of thousands of times return chips in order to continue to break through upwards. Although macro and liquidity factors may still support Bitcoin, caution is still needed at this stage, and close attention should be paid to capital flows and Large Investors' movements.