Recently, the financial market's expectation of the Fed possibly lowering interest rates in September has been heating up. However, this optimistic sentiment may be facing a severe reality test.

Market sentiment is high, but there are clear differences. According to the pricing in the futures market, investors generally believe that the likelihood of a rate cut in September is as high as 92%. However, this kind of consensus expectation has historically proven to be unreliable. In January of this year and June of last year, similar collective expectations led to significant misjudgments.

It is worth noting that a clear differentiation has emerged among market participants. Retail investors are aggressively buying U.S. stock funds, real estate stocks, and cryptocurrencies, betting on loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, major financial institutions, including Barclays, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, are warning that the probability of interest rate cuts is being overestimated and are advising investors to take risk hedging measures.

However, the economic data does not seem to support the possibility of a rate cut. First, inflationary pressures still exist. Although the overall inflation rate has retreated, core inflation remains at a high level of 3.1%. Even more concerning is the significant increase in 'super core inflation', which reflects the price trends in the service sector and is closely related to wage growth. In this context, a rate cut could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Secondly, the lagging effects of tariff policies have yet to fully materialize. Some economists warn that commodity prices may rebound in the future, and if interest rates are cut at that time, it could trigger a secondary rise in inflation.

Finally, the job market remains strong. The unemployment rate is below 4%, and the average hourly wage growth has reached 4.1%. This resilience in the job market may continue to push inflation levels higher.

In light of these factors, there are already voices within the Fed opposing interest rate cuts. Some officials believe that lowering rates in the context of a strong labor market could lead to a rebound in inflation.

Therefore, although the market has high hopes for a rate cut in September, economic realities may force the Fed to maintain a cautious stance. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming economic data and speeches from Fed officials for clearer policy guidance.