What are the differences between this bull run and the bull run of 2021?

Many people who watch the market tend to focus on a specific point and not let go. Some only pay attention to technical aspects, some only look at sentiment, and others fixate solely on the so-called "cycle time points." This is theoretically correct; the second year after Bitcoin's halving is often the end of a bull run. However, if this is taken as the only criterion for judgment, the conclusion can easily go awry.
Let's pull the timeline back to 2021. The reason why that bull run proceeded smoothly, apart from the effects of the halving cycle, was the macro environment. The Federal Reserve released a large amount of liquidity at that time, cutting interest rates and injecting money into the market. However, by the end of 2021, the situation took a sharp turn: inflation data soared to a 40-year high, unemployment rates rapidly declined, and the Federal Reserve began to clearly signal interest rate hikes. The dot plot in December showed that almost all committee members supported rate hikes, and the market quickly realized that a tightening cycle was coming in 2022. Thus, the end of the bull run and the expectations of interest rate hikes appeared almost simultaneously. This is the "perfect overlap" of cycles and macro conditions in 2021.
Looking at the current situation. Many people are shouting bear market, reasoning that it is the second year after the halving, but they overlook one point: the macro environment is completely opposite to that of 2021. At the end of 2021, the interest rate hike cycle was just about to begin, while now we are in the midst of a rate-cutting cycle. The Federal Reserve's predictions for interest rates over the next two years are still being revised downwards. Even conservatively speaking, interest rate hikes will not return at least until 2026. In other words, the liquidity extraction machine has been temporarily turned off, and the market is still enjoying the tail end of the easing.
So the question arises: when the "cyclical patterns" and "macroeconomic environment" clash, which one should we believe? I tend to view it this way — cycles are indeed the long-term rhythm, but macro policies determine the current elasticity. In 2017, the Federal Reserve was tapering, yet Bitcoin still completed its bull run, which indicates that policies do not always directly end market trends. However, by 2021, both the macro environment and cycles hit the brakes, and the bull run truly came to a sudden stop.
So looking at 2025, the situation is much more complicated than in 2021. Bitcoin is still near its all-time high, and Ethereum is gradually starting to gain traction, but altcoins are clearly lagging behind, and the integrity of the cycle has begun to show cracks. In past bull runs, altcoins would at least ride the wave for a while, but in this round of market action, altcoins have performed noticeably weaker, which is where things are "different."
In terms of operations, the approaches can be divided into several categories:
The first type is the cyclical traders. If you believe that the second year after the halving marks the end of the bull run, then you must act decisively: the core idea is to gradually reduce your holdings when you see new highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, without getting attached to them. Be especially cautious with altcoins; if the market sentiment shifts negatively, clear your positions immediately. The advantage of cyclical traders lies in their clear discipline, which prevents them from being swayed by emotions, while the disadvantage is that if this bull run is extended by macroeconomic factors, they may miss out on significant profits.
The second category is the macro faction. If you pay more attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, then the approach is relatively patient: you can continue to hold high-certainty assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a moderate allocation to altcoins, but don’t overexpose your positions. When the Federal Reserve signals another interest rate hike, consider taking profits. The advantage is that you might benefit from an extended bull run, while the disadvantage is that if the cycle ends early, the pullback could be quite painful.
The third type is the hybrid faction, which is actually suitable for most people. The approach is to layer positions: reduce a portion under the cyclical logic, leave a portion under the macro logic, so that regardless of the situation, the mindset can remain relatively stable. For example, holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as a long-term base, while the altcoin position is divided into two parts, one part for short-term trading and the other part for betting on macro extensions. #加密市场反弹#