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The Bitcoin options market has once again sent out warning signals, attracting widespread attention from investors. Recently, the Delta skew (also known as the "fear index") of 30-day Bitcoin options soared to 12%, reaching a new high not seen in over four months, far exceeding the normal fluctuation range of -6% to +6%. This data reflects extreme pessimism in the market regarding the short-term outlook for Bitcoin.
However, historical data shows that such extreme market panic is often the result of short-term overreactions. On April 7 of this year, when the Delta skew reached 13%, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply from $74,500. But surprisingly, in the following month, Bitcoin not only rebounded but skyrocketed by 40%, eventually breaking through the $104,000 mark. This case highlights the potential gains for contrarian investors.
Regarding the current market situation, there are opinions that believe:
1. The bull market trend has not ended; the current situation may just be a short-term adjustment.
2. During the panic selling by retail investors, institutional investors may be secretly accumulating chips.
3. The potential influx of funds from global stock markets may bring new upward momentum to the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin.
It is worth noting that the market often amplifies short-term emotional fluctuations, but long-term trends typically do not undergo fundamental changes overnight. During peak moments of market panic, rational analysis and calm decision-making become particularly important.
Investors should remain vigilant in the face of current market fluctuations, while also recognizing that extreme panic may harbor potential investment opportunities. Rationally assessing risks and reasonably controlling positions may yield significant returns when market sentiment reverses.