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Recently, a striking phenomenon has emerged in the Crypto Assets market: the Interest Rate of USDC has suddenly surged to double digits, far exceeding the conventional levels of 3%-5% for other stablecoins. This abnormal rise in interest rates is not due to an overall shortage of funds in the market, but may suggest that some institutions are implementing a strategic behavior.
High interest rates can be a way to attract retail investors and provide institutions with an opportunity to gradually exit. This practice is similar to casting bait on a calm lake, waiting for the fish to bite.
By observing on-chain data, we can identify some warning signs that are worth noting:
1. In the past week, the number of large USDC transfers (single transactions exceeding 10 million) surged by 300%, while the holdings of major whale accounts decreased by about 15%. This asymmetric change may indicate that large holders are gradually reducing their positions.
2. The behavior of arbitrageurs is also worth noting. Some institutions are enjoying high Intrerest Rates on one hand, while actively exchanging USDC for USDT or fiat currency on other platforms on the other hand. This "left hand in, right hand out" operation mode may be a precautionary measure against potential risks.
3. Although Circle has consistently emphasized the transparency of its reserve assets, industry sources indicate that some of the assets it holds may include "problematic assets" that are difficult to liquidate quickly, such as non-standardized bonds or derivatives that are about to expire. These assets may appear valuable during normal times, but may be hard to sell at a reasonable price in emergencies.
These combined signs seem to suggest that certain institutions may be preparing for potential market changes. For ordinary investors, high interest rates are certainly tempting, but it is still necessary to carefully assess the potential risks and comprehensively consider market trends and the possible motives behind them when making investment decisions. In this rapidly changing world of Crypto Assets, staying vigilant and thinking independently is more important than ever.