The division within the Fed intensifies! The countdown to the interest rate cut in September ignites the crypto world.

Last night, a smoke-free game unfolded within the Fed—two core members appointed by Trump, Waller and Bowman, openly voted against maintaining the current interest rates at the July meeting, directly confronting Fed Chair Powell. Bowman made it clear that "we must cut rates three times this year," pointing directly at the cliff-like drop in employment data: only 35,000 jobs were added in the past three months, which has fallen to "recession levels." Meanwhile, hawkish representative Schmidt warned: "Cutting rates now is playing with fire! Inflation has still not been effectively controlled."

What is more noteworthy is that the White House has directly intervened in this game! Treasury Secretary Basant publicly pressured: "Interest rates should be cut by 50 basis points in September!" He even urgently appointed his confidant Milan to the Fed's Board of Governors, attempting to reverse the voting pattern. The market quickly responded, betting that the probability of a rate cut in September soared to over 90%, and an epic monetary easing seems to have entered its final countdown.

The crypto world is on the brink of a nuclear explosion in market conditions, but beware of the trap of "cutting leeks" first!

Short term (1-4 weeks): Be wary of the market bloodbath of "buy the expectation, sell the fact."

- Sudden Drop Warning: Risk of Historical Repetition! Referencing the 50% plunge in Bitcoin after the Fed cut rates in March 2020, if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in September, it is highly likely that speculative funds will take profits, and a 5%-20% correction is imminent.
- Leverage liquidation: If Bitcoin rises to $130,000 before a rate cut, concentrated long positions may trigger an on-chain liquidation wave, and altcoins could even halve overnight.
- Key Point: Keep a close eye on Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on August 22 - if he releases "dovish" signals (indicating a continuation of rate cuts), it may support the market; if he releases "hawkish" signals (warning of inflation risks), it could trigger a collapse.

Medium to long term (1 month later): The two major engines are expected to ignite a raging bull market.

- Engine 1: A hundred billion level ETH ETF capital flood. If the Ethereum ETF passes the S-1 approval in September (with a probability over 70%), tens of billions of institutional funds will flood into ETH! With reference to the daily average inflow of 300 million for the Bitcoin ETF, ETH may drive a strong rise in the staking sector (like Lido) and Layer 2 (like Arbitrum).
- Engine 2: Global hot money shifts to crypto assets. After interest rate cuts, the cost of borrowing in dollars plummets, and hot money will accelerate into high-risk areas. In the past three rounds of rate cut cycles, Bitcoin's average increase exceeded 150%. Under this liquidity easing, a $150,000 Bitcoin is not out of reach.

Three potential scenarios: getting rich, losing everything, and market fluctuations.

- Best Scenario (40% probability): Interest rate cut in September + ETH ETF approval + inflation cooling → Bitcoin surges to 150,000, altcoins begin a frenzied rally.
- Oscillation Script (50% probability): Economic data deterioration triggers recession panic → Mainstream coins consolidate sideways, altcoins remain sluggish.
- Nuclear explosion script (10% probability): October CPI inflation rebound + Fed emergency brake → crypto world starts from a halving, leveraged players may collectively go to zero.

Retail Survival Guide: Seize Opportunities or Avoid Risks

- Short-term strategy: If there is a surge before interest rate cuts, immediately reduce positions! Avoid adding leverage to chase highs.
- ETH ETF Sniping: If approved, heavily invest in ETH and ecosystem coins (such as SSV, OP); if failed, withdraw completely.
- Black Swan Warning: On October 9, when the CPI data is released, if inflation reignites, liquidate positions immediately to hedge.
- Bottom fishing opportunity: If interest rate cuts trigger a crash, one can gradually buy the dip on Bitcoin and Ethereum - during the easing cycle, leading coins are never absent from the bull market.

Hidden risks: Interest rate cuts could spell disaster for stablecoin giant Circle! Dragonfly investor Omar reveals: For every 1% rate cut, Circle's revenue will evaporate by $618 million! Yesterday, its stock was sold off by $1.5 billion, forcing it to urgently launch "Circle Chain" for survival.

Final reminder: The core of the crypto world bull market is "liquidity," and the global liquidity faucet has just been opened after September. Remember, there is no need to panic during downturns, and do not go crazy during upswings — the real mad cow often rises after the market experiences growing pains! #晒出我的Alpha积分#