On August 8, Ethereum (ETH) broke through the $4000 barrier, sparking heated discussions on Polymarket. Investors' expectations for ETH to break through $4200 this month have sharply risen to 68%, reflecting short-term optimism in the market. However, we need to approach this prediction with caution, as the probabilities in prediction markets are essentially a concentration of investor sentiment rather than certainties about the future.

Historical experience shows that predictions of key price levels often reverse due to sudden events or market fluctuations. The upward momentum of ETH mainly comes from three aspects: reduced selling pressure from staking lock-up, value accumulation of public chain ecosystems, and the prospects of long-term technological upgrades.

But we cannot ignore the challenges we currently face. First, the $4000 as an early peak may trigger profit-taking; second, the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies, especially the decisions of the Federal Reserve, may affect market direction; finally, the increasingly stringent regulatory environment may also pose potential risks.

From a more macro perspective, the core value of ETH lies in its status as a Web3 infrastructure, rather than short-term price fluctuations. The 68% expected probability on Polymarket should be viewed as a barometer of market sentiment, rather than a direct basis for investment decisions. While the market outlook is optimistic, investors should remain rational and avoid following the crowd blindly.

The long-term development of ETH will continue to rely on its application expansion in areas such as decentralized finance, NFTs, and smart contracts. Wise investors should pay attention to these fundamental factors rather than just chasing short-term price movements. In the cryptocurrency market, maintaining calm and rational analysis is crucial to grasp real investment opportunities amid volatility.