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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
Just shy of the $4,891 ATH—think it breaks through?
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Dare to trade. Dare to win.
The non-farm data is hard to deal with... Looking at the Favourable Information, the market has a big dump! Can we still trust this data?
Today the non-farm payroll data has been released, and it looks like favourable information, with an expectation of 11, and an actual release of 7.3. The slowdown in growth is paving the way for interest rate cuts...
Moreover, the key point is that the June data has been revised down from 147,000 to 14,000.. The May figure has been revised down from 144,000 to 19,000...
Directly forcefully revising the very good employment data from May and June to very poor???
As soon as this news was announced, the probability of a rate cut in September soared from around 35-37% after the Federal Reserve meeting to the latest 82%.. Didn’t Old Powell say the job market is strong? Then this data will show you a collapse.. Let’s see if you still cut rates in September!
From this perspective, it should be Favourable Information, right? The probability of interest rate cuts has increased.. Shouldn't the market rise? The US stock market crashes as soon as it opens!
So this data can be changed just like that... Was the 140,000+ data from May and June fabricated... Now the truth is revealed with the correction.. Or is the data from May and June true, and now it's being manipulated to push for interest rate cuts?
Regardless of which viewpoint is correct, there is always one side that is false, right? So does this data still have any meaning to believe in? Is that why the market fell like this?
Macro is macro, the market is always right.. We can only force an explanation based on market data..
Anyway, if I don't understand the market, I won't trade.. Today I locked in the profit at 1144 and have been in cash ever since. Continuing to observe, will continue tomorrow...