ETH Stake Unlocking Wave: Market Signal or Ecological Adjustment?

Recently, the Ethereum network has experienced a wave of large-scale stake unlocks, raising concerns in the market about the price trend of ETH. Data shows that as of July 23, approximately 521,252 ETH (worth about $1.93 billion) are waiting to be unstaked, with a queue time of over 9 days and 1 hour, setting a record for the longest wait in nearly a year.

This phenomenon has sparked numerous speculations. Some believe that this may be investors choosing to take profits after the significant rise in ETH prices. Since the beginning of April, the price of ETH has increased by a total of 160%, reaching a seven-month high of $3,812 on July 21. Historically, a similar wave of unstaking occurred in January-February 2024, when the ETH/BTC ratio rose by 25% in a week, leading to large-scale unstaking and a short-term price drop of 10%-15%.

However, in-depth analysis shows that the current wave of unstaking does not necessarily mean direct selling pressure. First, while there are 520,000 ETH queued for unstaking, there are also 360,000 ETH entering the staking queue, significantly reducing the net exit amount. Second, institutional behavior has played a buffering role. Data from July 22 shows that the total inflow of ETH spot ETFs from various institutions reached $3.1 billion, far exceeding the $1.9 billion queued for unstaking that day.

More importantly, unstaking is not equivalent to selling. It is likely that institutions are adjusting their custody services or shifting towards crypto treasury strategies in search of higher yields. Some of the unlocked ETH may be used for DeFi and NFT-related activities, such as providing liquidity or participating in NFT trading. Additionally, the decoupling phenomenon of on-chain LST tokens also provides arbitrage opportunities for ETH.

There is a view that this wave of staking release may indicate that the ETH market is experiencing a "change of hands". A certain asset management company has accumulated over 2 million ETH, accounting for about 1.5%-2% of the total supply. This level of institutional public holding and accumulation may drive ETH from an internal value consensus to a broader financial tool consensus.

Overall, the current phenomenon of unstaking appears more like an adjustment within the Ethereum ecosystem rather than a direct sell-off signal. As ETH gradually becomes a mainstream financial tool, this wave of unstaking may signify the beginning of a new cycle. The long-term growth potential of Ethereum will continue to support its leadership position in the crypto space.