CS:GO Item Market: Another Battlefield of the Virtual Economy

The myth of wealth in the gaming world is unfolding. Even if you have never touched CS:GO, there are always people around you who are either earning or losing through it. As the Meme coin craze gradually fades, some speculators are turning their attention to CS skins, viewing CS:GO items as a new key to wealth.

CS:GO was released in August 2012, introducing the weapon case and skin system the following year, laying the foundation for the cosmetics economy. After numerous updates and attempts at making the game free-to-play, the cosmetics market for CS:GO has thrived for twelve years.

However, in May 2025, the CS skin market suddenly collapsed. The skin index plummeted by 20% within three days, and the prices of several popular trading items were almost halved, sparking heated discussions among users. This scene of market collapse is all too familiar for those who have experienced significant drops in cryptocurrency, except this time what they hold is "virtual gun skins".

Players who have long relied on the appreciation of skins for satisfaction have lost their joy overnight. This hyped market appears fragile, as these skins, similar to NFTs, experience a decline as fierce as that of meme coins. How did they attract followers, and what impact will this bring?

Easy Ways to Make Money

In April 2025, while the Meme coin market was calm and uneventful, the CS:GO skin market was booming, attracting the attention of many players in the crypto community.

It all started with the Arms Deal update in 2013. Skins (also known as "cosmetics", which are essentially graphic overlays that modify the appearance of weapons in CS) were introduced at that time and could only be obtained through random drops in the game.

This has opened the era of the "loot box lottery" wealth game. To obtain rare skins, players began to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites further fueled market prosperity, giving birth to a comprehensive ecosystem—comprising players, trading platforms, streamers, resellers, black markets, and data tools.

Most people who have experienced fluctuations in the CS:GO skin market initially did so for the gaming experience.

In 2019, university student Mantou began to engage with CS:GO. At first, the game was just a game. He said: "After playing for a while, I wanted to buy skins," which is completely normal for players.

For CS:GO players, skins are not just decorations; they are more like a form of social currency. High-quality or rare skins showcase a player's status within the community and satisfy their vanity. This naturally creates a demand for the circulation of items and fosters a corresponding market.

After深入了解市场, Mantou noticed a significant increase in skin prices. Coupled with the limited economic situation at the time, he developed the idea of "speculating on skins."

His first bucket of gold was not large - "I made a few hundred bucks at first, and I was happy for a few days."

For Mantou, purchasing skins and gaming experience go hand in hand. He doesn't have a specific trading strategy, "I just wanted to play, so I went and bought it." However, the fluctuations in the skin market sometimes prompt him to return to CS:GO; for example, this April, he came back to the game after hearing that "skins are very popular."

In fact, CS:GO and its derivative skin economy do indeed promote each other.

A well-known figure in the industry once took the initiative to study the market economy created by this game out of curiosity. He believes that the persistent wealth effect of the CS:GO skins market is closely related to the characteristics of the game itself.

"As a shooter game, the game mode of CS:GO is very simple and has not changed much compared to when it was first developed." Additionally, the frequent events held by the developers stimulate players, which can quickly attract old players back due to nostalgia or other factors.

While attracting and retaining veteran players, the promotion by esports streamers has also lowered the barriers to entry, drawing a continuous influx of "new generation forces" (mainly college students) into the market, contributing to its growth.

Vanity drives players to trade skins and accessories, and the prospect of making money attracts a continuous influx of both new and old players, making play-to-earn the best epitaph for the CS:GO game and skin economy.

The Leap in Jewelry Prices

The price range of the CS:GO skin market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins worth a few yuan to rare treasures worth tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, together forming this unique ecosystem. This stratification is similar to the cryptocurrency market—ordinary skins are like "shitcoins," while top-tier items such as the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to well-known collectibles in the NFT space, with their prices constantly breaking records due to scarcity and consensus premium.

A large number of common weapon cases and ordinary quality skins are located at the lower end of the price spectrum, for example, certain weapon cases may be sold for around 2.5 RMB. These items are relatively easy to obtain and have a large supply, which makes them affordable and meets the basic personalization needs of most players.

Jewelry in the medium price range typically costs between several tens to several hundred RMB. Jewelry in this range often features more outstanding design, a certain level of rarity, or is associated with more popular weapons.

In the high-end market, prices exhibit exponential growth, with jewelry often costing thousands to tens of thousands of yuan. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and those top-tier gun skins that are legendary or exceedingly rare. Some special high-end items can fetch prices as high as over a hundred thousand yuan on second-hand platforms.

These high-priced accessories have surpassed the game items themselves and are regarded as collectibles and investment assets.

Overall, factors such as the color, wear level, rarity, style of the accessories, trader operations, student holidays, new releases, and even streamer effects can all influence their market prices. In-game markets and third-party trading websites have also played a significant role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.

Even if influencing factors can be rationally sorted out, the fluctuations in the prices of accessories are still unexpected. This unpredictability is common in both the CS:GO accessory market and the cryptocurrency market.

When CS:GO announced its upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw a price increase. However, just a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, many skins experienced a significant price drop due to changes in display effects or adjustments in drop mechanics, leaving many players who bought in at high prices "stuck." This situation is quite similar to the price fluctuations of certain cryptocurrencies.

However, the price fluctuations and transactions of accessories may seem as random and free as certain crypto assets, but they are actually under the control of game developers. The entire economic ecosystem surrounding accessories must be adjusted according to the developers' rules, who hold absolute initiative in this regard.

An industry insider stated, "They (the developers) control all the probabilities and the rarity of each skin that is released, and they can tell you where to go." Even the display effects of skins in the game can change due to updates; "Why does CS2 have such a big impact on prices? Because the developers changed how some skins are displayed in the game, some look better, and some look worse," Mantou said.

The items in CS:GO are financial products that can fly, but looking down, the string of this kite is always held in the hands of the developers.

Extremes aside, there is a risk in the accessory market that "if the developer updates tomorrow, skins may no longer be freely traded." As Mantou said: "You cannot control changes in developer policies, and certain crypto assets are easier to operate in this regard."

The story of the cryptocurrency market is repeating in the jewelry market

The financial attributes and price fluctuations of accessories have made many in the crypto space exclaim, "Isn't this just NFT!".

This is not nonsense; even the "play and earn" effect that it inadvertently achieves coincides with the "play to earn" that some blockchain game designs pursue.

Although CS:GO skins can be used in the game, this constitutes a difference in practicality compared to NFTs. Mantou stated, "Some that sell for a high price are indeed good-looking," but in fact, this is just a small part.

"The skin has no functionality, not even adding three points of attack power." For a large group of young players, accessories carry more complex psychological needs and social meanings. They are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of appearance, face culture, and identity symbols, which is very similar to the role that NFTs play in certain circles.

A certain jewelry trading website describes a tournament gold print by stating that it is "not just a simple sticker, but a symbol of identity." "While it may not enhance your skills, it will definitely elevate your gaming experience and status."

In addition to the social identity symbolic attributes, the two also share similarities in price driving factors.

Insiders say that the prices of specific items in CS:GO can rise due to the celebrity effect of streamers and esports players, and NFTs, which are primarily symbols of identity, also need some celebrity effect to drive their prices.

The endorsement brought by celebrities' purchases can drive up the floor price of NFTs, causing prices to soar hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period. However, once market sentiment shifts, liquidity tightens, or negative news arises about the project itself, NFT prices may plummet dramatically in a short time, resulting in significant losses for those who bought in at high prices.

Coincidentally, after the CS:GO skins crash, the cryptocurrency and popular token markets have quietly warmed up again. Ethereum, which had been dormant for a long time, has seen a 7-day increase of nearly 40%, breaking through the $2500 mark, and several popular tokens have also started to recover. Some even speculate that funds are circulating between different virtual assets, creating an alternative "vampire effect." Although it cannot be directly proven, this coincidence of capital flow has become a topic of conversation in the crypto community during their leisure time.

Opportunities and risks always coexist. Before May, CS:GO players who had been enjoying a stable happiness for a while faced this unprecedented price plunge.

The 50,000 RMB that Mantou gained from the appreciation of accessories has overnight turned into a loss of 70,000. When discussing his views on this decline, he appeared quite calm, having "experienced the crypto market". He believes that compared to the previous declines that felt like "a dull knife cutting meat" with almost no trading volume, this drop has been significant with decent trading volume. If the accessory market can attract more attention and recover gradually, it should be a good thing.

After all, the story of virtual speculation will never end, from popular tokens to CS:GO skins. The market, emotions, greed, and fear always cycle through different tracks.

The only constant is that financial freedom is always out of reach, and there will always be someone to take over at a high position.