Discussion about probabilists:

" What kind of person is a probabilist, Just Invert, what kind of person is not a probabilist:

When passing by a lottery booth, I can't help but think about those who buy lottery tickets: how can they be so certain that they will be the lucky ones, knowing that "a large portion of the money spent on lottery tickets contributes to the lottery operating units from a probabilistic standpoint."

Those who trade stocks or stock mutual funds in the short term: Overall, the stock market in the short term is a zero-sum game where one's gain is another's loss. After deducting trading costs such as fund management fees and capital gains taxes, everyone is a loser in terms of probability.

Those who run red lights, those who do not wear safety helmets in dangerous workshops, those who do not wear seat belts while driving.

Is it because of a lack of understanding of probability, or understanding it yet believing that one's intelligence can cover the losses from probability, or simply a sense of luck?

This is the first type of non-probabilistic person, who either does not understand probability or understands it but bets on their luck getting better. Although they are widely present, most people with basic common sense or those who have received basic education in mathematics can generally avoid making the above mistakes.

The second type of non-probabilist is more covert and extreme: those successful individuals who take pride in their achievements believe that their success is due to their own abilities rather than the luck bestowed upon them by history and circumstances, and not only do they think this way, but society at large does as well.

The consequence of a successful person being self-righteous is that they become complacent and boastful, as if they know everything, believing that they not only can do well at what they are currently doing but also excel at many other things, until reality tells them that there are others who are stronger (in fact, luckier) than they are. The public believes that successful people succeed due to their abilities rather than luck, leading to a simplistic summarization of success laws, blindly learning from and idolizing successful individuals, wasting a great deal of time and energy on fruitless imitation of others, ultimately causing a huge waste to society as a whole—every economic bubble burst has the shadow of blind imitation.

The second type of probabilist mistakenly regards good luck (non-continuable low-probability events) as strength (sustainable inevitable events), acquiring the laws of things through simple induction without in-depth synthesis and deduction, ignoring the laws of probability and ultimately being punished by the laws of probability.

The third type of non-probabilistic thinker is those diligent and conscientious individuals who invest their time and energy evenly or as needed in every matter that comes their way. They do not want to disappoint others or themselves in any situation, and sometimes, due to their vigor or jealousy of friends, they pursue excellence in many areas. Due to their egalitarian thoughts and behaviors, they often end up being among the most ordinary people in society—although some of them are inherently intelligent and could have been less mediocre.

They are all good people in the traditional sense, which is not without merit, but there is another type of person who is even more commendable: they are particularly patient to the point of laziness, so they often deal with many things in a rather perfunctory manner; they are particularly focused to the point of fanaticism, which often makes their friends feel that they are particularly boring; they often think about the present with penetrating insights into history and the future rather than believing that current trends will continue forever; they often do the opposite of trends, abandoning what everyone is chasing and cherishing what everyone despises; they only invest their almost entire energy in the most important things at the most critical moments, then accumulate and wait until the next opportunity arises.

The above describes three types of non-probabilists, while true probabilists are just the opposite: Counting, not Gambling; respecting probability rather than believing in strength; waiting for significant opportunities and betting heavily when they arise, rather than averaging investments across any opportunities.

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