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The stock market circuit breaker has triggered turmoil in global markets, putting Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes to the test.
March 9, 2020, may be recorded in financial history. On this day, the U.S. stock market experienced its second circuit breaker since the "Black Monday" of 1987. The first circuit breaker occurred on October 27, 1997, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 7.18%, marking the largest single-day drop since 1915.
The recent big dump in the stock market was triggered by multiple factors, including the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. presidential primaries, and the drastic fluctuations in oil prices. Global stock markets have been severely impacted, and the cryptocurrency market has not been spared. Bitcoin's price fell sharply from $9170 to $7680, with a nearly 20% drop within two days. At the same time, the liquidation amount in futures trading on major exchanges reached nearly $700 million.
Analysts believe that the synchronized decline of the global financial markets this time is mainly attributed to the cumulative effects of multiple adverse factors. Prior to this, the liquidity of the global financial markets was already relatively insufficient, and market performance was below expectations. The presence of significant leverage has made the market more susceptible to liquidity issues.
In this situation, the risk aversion demand of investors has surged sharply. Many choose to sell stocks, withdraw from the commodities futures market, and turn to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold, cash, and government bonds.
As an emerging digital asset, Bitcoin's scarcity has led some people to view it as a potential hedge tool. However, during this global financial turmoil, Bitcoin has not exhibited an upward trend similar to gold; instead, it has experienced a significant fall.
Industry experts are cautious about whether Bitcoin can become an effective safe-haven asset. They point out that the market size of Bitcoin is relatively small, making it difficult to withstand a large influx of funds from traditional financial markets. Additionally, the high volatility of Bitcoin prices makes it challenging for professional investment teams to consider it a reliable safe-haven tool.
From a risk-hedging perspective, Bitcoin is indeed difficult to compare with gold at the moment. Due to insufficient market depth and the limited understanding and consensus of the public regarding Bitcoin, it currently resembles a high-risk asset, whose performance is highly correlated with market liquidity.
Nevertheless, this does not mean that Bitcoin can never become a safe-haven asset in the future. As a relatively niche asset, Bitcoin is still evolving and improving. Although it is premature to label it as a safe-haven asset at this time, among all digital assets, Bitcoin is undoubtedly the one that has come the furthest and shows the most promise on the path to becoming "digital gold."
Investors should rationally view the potential and risks of Bitcoin, make cautious decisions, and not blindly follow market sentiment. In this fast-changing financial world, it is crucial to maintain an objective and cautious attitude.