1. **Regulatory and Policy Dynamics**

- **Taiwan Compliance Upgrade**: MAX will require users to update their occupation, income sources, and other information starting today. Those who do not complete this may face trading restrictions, as this is part of the compliance requirements set by the Financial Supervisory Commission.
- **U.S. Stablecoin Legislation Advances**: The Treasury Secretary revealed that the cryptocurrency stablecoin bill may be completed by mid-July, paving the way for large tech companies (such as Meta and Amazon) to issue stablecoins.
- **Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation**: The "Stablecoin Ordinance" came into effect on August 1, promoting a surge in the RWA (Real World Assets) sector. Shenzhen will hold an RWA standards seminar on July 3.
- **Large Unlock Risk**: SUI today unlocks 44 million tokens (approximately $12.28 million), accounting for 0.86% of the circulation, which may exacerbate selling pressure.
2. **Macroeconomic Impact**
- **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Goldman Sachs has moved the rate cut timeline from December to September. Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that there is no need to raise rates to combat inflation, and liquidity easing is favorable for risk assets.
- **US TGA liquidity injection**: In August, a historic liquidity release may occur, historical data indicates it could trigger an altcoin bull market.
- **Bitcoin Key Level**: Watch the $107,450 support (4-hour EMA20), losing it could trigger a chain liquidation.
3. **Points to Note**
- **High Leverage Concentration Zone**: A large number of leveraged short positions are concentrated in Bitcoin at $109,000–$110,000, which can easily be "liquidity swept" by market makers.
4. **Potential Opportunity Direction**
- **Stablecoin Sector**: Circle (issuer of USDC) price has risen by 500% compared to its IPO, and regulatory clarity may spur long-term growth;
- **Shanzhai Season Expectations**: If Bitcoin breaks through the historical high of $111,980, funds may rotate to ETF concept coins like SOL and XRP.