Trump mediates, Israel and Hamas ceasefire, The Federal Reserve (FED) hints at rate cuts, does the crypto market rebound overnight?

Written by: Wenser (@wenser 2010)

No one expected that overnight, the tension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would suddenly calm down; meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, which has never been accommodating regarding interest rate cuts, also began to hint that it might resume cutting rates in July. Possibly influenced by these two macro-level positive factors, the cryptocurrency market showed signs of a strong rebound overnight, with BTC briefly breaking above 106,000 dollars; ETH rebounded above 2,400 dollars.

Odaily Planet Daily will summarize last night's and today's "New Middle East Events" and news related to the Federal Reserve for readers' reference.

Trump's "War Scepter": From Middle East Alerts to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

As mentioned in our previous article "The US Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, ETH Plummets by 7%", Trump mobilized military forces to raid Iranian nuclear facilities, making cryptocurrencies including ETH and BTC "war fuel"; on the evening of June 23, Beijing time, tensions in the Middle East further escalated, with Iran and Israel exchanging harsh words, and the US also "joining the fray", leading many countries in the Middle East to close their airspace due to threats from Iranian attacks. In such an environment, Trump still managed to fully utilize his diplomatic skills, combining his "war scepter" to temporarily put the brakes on the Iran-Israel conflict in just about ten hours.

Iran: From "Preparing for War" to "Ceasefire???"

On the evening of June 22, a senior Iranian official stated that the Iranian government hopes the United States will "directly" bear the costs of the war, rather than standing behind Israel and advancing its own agenda without incurring any costs. The official indicated that "Iran estimates this war may last up to two years, and Iran is prepared for this." The words reflect a ruthless determination to drag the United States into the quagmire of war.

Subsequently, Iranian media cited remarks from senior Iranian political figures stating that Iran is likely to attack U.S. military facilities within the next few hours.

Just when the crypto market was in a panic, Iran indeed took action.

According to a report by AXIOS journalist Barak Ravid, Israeli officials stated that Iran launched 6 missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar. Subsequently, witnesses reported hearing explosions over the capital of Qatar, Doha. As a result, Qatar closed its airspace, and the UAE quickly followed with plans to close its airspace as well. Meanwhile, alarms sounded at all U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including those in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.

The Iranian armed forces subsequently stated: "Devastating and powerful" missiles were used in the attack on the U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar.

Trump says Israel and Palestine have reached a ceasefire agreement

But just around 6 a.m. today, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete ceasefire. Iranian officials confirmed to Reuters that Iran has accepted the ceasefire proposal with Israel put forward by the United States. Additionally, after Iran attacked the U.S. airbase in Qatar on the 23rd, Trump and Vice President Pence discussed the ceasefire proposal between Israel and Iran with Qatar's Emir. Trump told the Emir that Israel has agreed to the ceasefire and requested Qatar's help in persuading Iran to also agree to the ceasefire.

The cryptocurrency market has begun to rebound, possibly influenced by this news. Currently, Iran's stance has softened somewhat, but the achievement of a ceasefire agreement still requires time to test.

At 8:46 today, according to a post by the Iranian foreign minister, "so far, there has been no 'agreement' reached between Israel and Iran regarding a ceasefire or the cessation of military actions. However, as long as the Israeli regime does not stop its illegal aggression against the Iranian people by 4 AM Tehran time (8:30 AM Beijing time), we do not intend to continue responding thereafter. The final decision regarding the cessation of our military actions will be made later."

Israel: From 'Planned Attack' to 'Agreement to Ceasefire'

The change in attitude from the Israeli side can be described as extremely rapid.

On the evening of the 23rd, according to the Wall Street Journal, Israeli officials stated that they will continue to strike Iran's military infrastructure but are seeking to end the war with Iran as soon as possible.

Subsequently, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces stated that Israel will attack Iran's military infrastructure in the coming days.

Perhaps it was Iran's attacks on American military bases in the Middle East that made Israel realize that their military objectives had already been achieved, and ending the war might be a better choice. Subsequently, Israel accepted the United States' mediation and agreed to a ceasefire.

Israeli Army Radio reporter Yanir Cozin previously reported that he spoke with Israeli officials and learned that Israel is indeed nearing a ceasefire agreement with Iran, but it is still necessary to peacefully get through tonight (early this morning), as Israel is currently launching intense attacks against Iran, and Iran may also launch a fierce attack against Israel. Earlier that day, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, at the end of a cabinet meeting, requested cabinet members not to comment on the recent developments, namely "Trump announced that Israel agreed to a full ceasefire," until further notice.

United States: Launch missiles first, then celebrate peace

ACCORDING TO AXIOS, THE IRAIS-ISRAELI CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT WAS REACHED THROUGH MEDIATION IN QATAR AND THE UNITED STATES. After Iran retaliated against the US air base in Qatar, Iran sent a message to the White House through Qatar that it would not launch any further attacks. The White House also sent a message emphasizing that there would be no retaliation for the Iranian attack and that the United States was ready to resume negotiations with Iran. Since then, the United States and Israel, Qatar and Iran have continued negotiations to agree on the terms and start of the ceasefire.

Previously, Trump had posted on social media that the U.S. nuclear submarines are "the most powerful and deadly" weapons in history, and that 30 "Tomahawk" missiles were launched, all hitting their targets (i.e., Iranian nuclear facilities).

Trump also understands the principle that "peace is achieved through war."

It is worth mentioning that after the news of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was reached, Trump also posted two intriguing images on the Truth Social platform: one is a black and white personal photo with the caption "Peace through strength"; the other is a photo released by the White House office showing Trump saluting with one hand, captioned "Peace & Harmony."

Trump: "Salute to the great United States"

Since then, this 12-day "Israel-Hamas conflict" has temporarily come to an end, and the details of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and both Israel and Hamas are yet to be revealed.

The Federal Reserve speaks: First hint of "interest rate cut"; clarity expected in July.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve, which has never wavered on the issue of interest rate cuts, has also begun to hint that it may consider a rate cut in July.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman hinted: may support a rate cut in July.

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated, "If inflationary pressures are controlled, I would support reducing the policy interest rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to neutral levels and maintain a healthy labor market."

Bowman has been very concerned about inflation risks over the past year. She stated that she believes tariffs may lead to "slight and one-time price increases" as she anticipates that this year's economic weakness will worsen. She described the labor market as solid and expected it to be close to full employment. However, she cited evidence of vulnerabilities (weakened labor market vitality, slowing economic growth, and narrow concentration of job growth) to demonstrate that the Federal Reserve "is increasingly focused on the downside risks to our future employment task." This is the first substantive comment Bowman has made on the economic outlook since Trump was elected, after the Senate confirmed her as vice chair for supervision this spring.

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: If trade policy impacts disappear, we should continue to lower interest rates.

The Fed's Goolsbee said in his speech this morning that we should continue to cut interest rates if the impact of trade policy wears off. It later added: "The lack of significant inflationary pressures since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2 could allow the Fed to cut rates again." He recalled that the Fed was expected to lower interest rates at the beginning of the year and paused them, mainly because of policy uncertainty; "If we don't see the inflation caused by these tariff increases, it seems to me that we never left what I call the golden road before April 2," he said. He likened tariffs to throwing a lot of dust into the air, so it's hard to see if you're still on your way. If there's no dust in the air, then I think we should go ahead with [rate cuts]."

Summary: The market has rebounded briefly, but the long-term trend remains to be verified.

Under the influence of two positive news items, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and the Federal Reserve hinting at interest rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market briefly rebounded. BTC is currently stabilizing at around $105,000, ETH is stabilizing above $2,400, and SOL is currently reported at around $143.

The future trend of the market and the direction of mainstream cryptocurrencies may still need to wait for the Israel-Palestine conflict to reach a conclusion and for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision to be announced soon. However, with the extreme tug-of-war and sudden changes in attitude from various parties, the crypto market is likely to seek answers amid fluctuations.