In June, the beautiful country's 6.5 trillion national debt will mature. If new bonds are issued to pay off old debts, in the end, no one will buy, and no one will support it. The beautiful country’s stock market is not far from collapsing. Do you think the cryptocurrency market will do well when the beautiful country's stock market collapses? Let's analyze this from multiple dimensions!

Based on the current market dynamics and historical correlation analysis, if the United States fails to issue new bonds after the maturity of the $6.5 trillion national debt, leading to liquidity exhaustion, it could result in a crash of the US stock market, while the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin) will show a complex differentiation in its trends. The following is a comprehensive analysis:
1. The Transmission Mechanism of the U.S. Debt Crisis and the Collapse of U.S. Stocks
1. 美债抛售的连锁反应
- If there is no one to take over U.S. Treasuries, the soaring yields will directly increase financing costs, exacerbating the default risk of corporate bonds (such as the $6.5 trillion in Treasuries maturing in June 2025 and over $10 trillion in corporate bonds).
- The US stock market relies on a low interest rate environment and high leveraged buybacks for support. Rising debt costs may lead to a decline in corporate profits, triggering a stock market sell-off and creating a "triple kill" situation of stocks, foreign exchange, and bonds.
2. Liquidity Crisis and Market Panic
- After the failure of US Treasuries as the "anchor" for global asset pricing, traditional safe-haven logic has been overturned, and funds may accelerate their escape from dollar assets, leading to a liquidity crisis in US stocks and triggering a collapse.
Second, the circle of the city is in the anti-应
1. Short-term shocks: Leverage liquidation and liquidity squeeze
High Leverage Risk: The current Bitcoin market exhibits high leverage phenomena (such as MicroStrategy increasing its Bitcoin holdings through bond issuance). If a panic sell-off occurs due to a collapse in the US stock market, Bitcoin could plummet by 30%-50% due to forced liquidations from margin calls, potentially triggering a systemic liquidation.
Increased Correlation: In recent years, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks (especially technology stocks) has risen, with short-term or synchronous declines, similar to the "double kill" market in March 2020.
2. Long-term Opportunities: Demand for Hedging and De-dollarization Trends
Risk-hedging attributes highlighted: If the credit of the US dollar is damaged (such as in the case of debt default or uncontrolled inflation), gold and Bitcoin may become alternative safe-haven assets. For example, during the bond sell-off in 2025, gold trading volume has significantly increased, while Bitcoin may attract capital inflows due to its anti-inflation characteristics.
去dollar化推动:全球"去美元化"加速(如多国减持美债、探索本币结算),比特币作为"数字黄金"或受益于法币信任危机,尤其是在特朗普政府试图通过加密策略巩固美元定价权的背景下。
3. 结构性differentiation:监管与市场参与者game
Wall Street-led crypto financialization**: The U.S. is incorporating the crypto market into the traditional financial system through tools like Bitcoin ETFs, which may weaken Bitcoin's decentralized attributes in the short term, but in the long run, the influx of institutional funds could enhance its liquidity.
Policy Hedging: If the U.S. government supports Bitcoin to alleviate the debt crisis (such as establishing reserves or easing regulations), it may drive up the price of the currency, creating a hedge against the risks of the dollar.
三、关键变量与情景预测
1. Time Node**
- If a crash in the US stock market occurs in Q1 2025, the cryptocurrency market may experience a similar "V-shaped recovery" as in 2020; if it happens in Q4, Bitcoin may strengthen against the trend due to its independent cycle (such as the halving effect).
2. Scale of Leverage Liquidation
- Currently, the margin debt in the U.S. financial industry has reached $815 billion. If Bitcoin crashes, it may lead to a chain reaction of liquidations, exacerbating market panic. However, if the Federal Reserve intervenes (such as restarting QE), liquidity injections could alleviate the crisis.
3. Dry politics
If the Trump administration implements a "tariff + crypto-friendly" combination policy, it may stabilize market confidence through the two-way binding of the US dollar and Bitcoin, but it needs to balance inflation and debt conflicts.
4. Conclusion
- *Short-term risks outweigh opportunities**: At the beginning of the U.S. stock market crash, the crypto market may experience a significant decline due to liquidity squeezes and leveraged liquidations, especially high-volatility cryptocurrencies (such as altcoins) face severe impacts.
- **Long-term structural opportunities**: If the US dollar credit continues to weaken, Bitcoin is expected to become a "new safe-haven asset," and its price may break historical highs, but one must be cautious of regulatory policies and market manipulation risks.
- **Strategic Recommendations**: Investors should closely monitor the results of U.S. Treasury auctions, shifts in Federal Reserve policy, and the flow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs, diversifying their allocation in gold and Bitcoin to hedge against extreme risks. #6月份6万亿美债到期#