The new tariff policy impacts the Bitcoin mining industry, and the prices of mining machines in the US may rise significantly.

Original author: Jaran Mellerud

Original text compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Trump's tariff policy will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin mining industry. Below is an analysis of the effects of this policy on the industry.

On April 2, Trump announced the implementation of comprehensive new tariffs on imported goods, aimed at strengthening the trade balance of the United States. Southeast Asia is hit the hardest, which has far-reaching effects on the Bitcoin mining machine supply chain. This region is home to most mining machine manufacturers, including major producers such as Bitmain, MicroBT, and Canaan.

In addition, as the United States accounts for 36% of the global computing power, these tariffs could severely impact miners' economic benefits, hardware prices both domestically and internationally, as well as the global distribution of computing power.

Before delving into the various impacts of tariffs on the Bitcoin mining industry, let's briefly explain how tariffs work.

How do tariffs work?

Tariffs are taxes imposed by the government on imported goods, with the primary aim of protecting domestic industries by raising the prices of foreign products to achieve this goal. When tariffs are implemented, importers must pay a certain percentage of the declared value of the goods to customs upon the goods' entry.

For example, if an American company imports electronic products worth $1,000 from China, and the tariff rate is 54%, the importer must pay an additional $540 in tariffs, bringing the total import cost to $1,540. This increased cost is usually passed on to consumers or reduces the profit margin for the importer.

关税历史:中美贸易战及其连锁反应

Bitcoin mining is a global industry, with the United States being a key player. The trade war and the tariffs it has triggered have already impacted this industry. However, historically, companies within the industry have found ways to circumvent these tariffs. In the following sections, we will explore how tariffs have historically affected the Bitcoin mining supply chain and what strategies companies have employed to evade these tariffs.

In 2018, the U.S. government imposed a 25% tariff on a range of Chinese goods, including electronics, as part of the U.S.-China trade war.

In response, companies like Bitmain have begun seeking ways to evade these high tariffs. They are relocating production from mainland China to Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, where goods exported to the United States are either duty-free or subject to lower tariffs—typically ranging from 1% to 3% for electronic products.

This strategy has been effective until earlier this month when Trump raised the tariffs on goods imported from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand to 32%, 24%, and 36%, respectively. As a result, companies like Bitmain and MicroBT can no longer completely avoid these high tariffs, which were originally only applied to goods imported from China.

In the following section, we will explain in detail how these newly implemented tariffs will affect the Bitcoin mining industry.

The price of mining machines in the United States will rise significantly.

The most direct and obvious impact of tariffs is that the price of mining machines in the United States will rise significantly.

As Ethan Vera pointed out in The Mining Pod: "...any company operating in the United States that wishes to purchase mining machines will need to pay an additional 22% to 36% for these machines." This is consistent with our data.

However, the 22% price increase only applies to imported mining machines. Currently, there is still a large inventory of mining machines within the United States. According to Bitmars' pricing data, there is currently a price difference of 13% to 25% between mining machines in the United States and those in Hong Kong. As the inventory in the United States decreases, this price difference may narrow to 22%, plus a small amount of shipping costs.

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The above image shows the final cost of importing a $1000 Bitcoin mining device into the United States and Finland before and after the introduction of countervailing tariffs. Like most other countries, Finland does not impose tariffs on electronic products imported from Asia - we take this country as an example because we mine there.

As shown in the figure, the initial cost of importing mining machines to the United States is slightly higher due to approximately 2% tariffs. However, after the introduction of new tariffs, the minimum cost of a mining machine that originally priced at $1000 has risen to $1240 in the United States. This is a significant increase. Meanwhile, in Finland and most other countries, the cost of a $1000 mining machine remains unchanged due to the absence of tariffs.

在比特币挖矿这样一个对成本极为敏感的行业,矿机价格上涨 22% 可能会使运营在财务上变得不可持续。 在本文后续部分,我们将探讨这些变化如何影响美国与其他地区的挖矿盈利能力。

Mining machines outside of the United States may become cheaper

As the price of mining machines in the United States rises, the prices of mining machines in other parts of the world may show a contrary downward trend.

The demand for mining machines shipped to the United States is expected to decline significantly, potentially approaching zero. Considering that the United States has always been a leader in the ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) market, accounting for nearly 40% of the global computing power, the sharp decline in purchases in the U.S. will lead to a significant reduction in global demand.

Due to the decrease in demand from American miners, manufacturers will face excess inventory that was originally planned for the U.S. market. In order to clear this inventory, they may need to lower prices to attract buyers from other regions.

Although it is difficult to accurately predict how much the price of mining machines will drop—because mining profitability will also affect the price—we can conclude based on basic economic principles that a decrease in demand for a certain asset typically leads to a decrease in its price.

This price drop will make it easier for miners outside of the United States to continue expanding, which may also lead to a decline in the share of the United States in global computing power that we are about to discuss next.

The share of the United States in the global Bitcoin mining industry will decline

Since China banned Bitcoin mining in 2021, the United States has been the dominant force in Bitcoin mining. According to data from the Hashrate Index, the U.S. currently accounts for 36% of the global hash rate.

Like any business activity, the core of Bitcoin mining lies in balancing risk and reward. Over the past four years, the United States has attracted a significant amount of mining investment as it is seen as one of the lowest-risk environments in the world, with political stability, abundant energy, and a liberalized electricity market. Moreover, miners have so far avoided major import tariffs, which has helped them control capital expenditures. These factors together create an unparalleled risk-reward balance.

To understand how the new tariffs reshape the United States' share in global mining, we first analyze it from the perspective of returns.

The figure below shows the expected payback period for deploying the Antminer S 21+ in the United States and a country not affected by tariffs. As the data indicates, paying 24% more for the same mining machine in the United States will significantly extend the payback period—this undermines the core economic rationale for mining in the U.S.

In addition to the higher costs of mining rigs, the risks have also been impacted. Many American miners felt reassured when Trump regained power, looking forward to a stable regulatory environment. But they are now experiencing the other side of his unpredictable policies. Even if these tariffs are lifted within a few months, the damage has been done—the confidence in long-term planning has been shaken. With key variables potentially changing overnight, few are willing to make significant investments.

In summary, the once unparalleled risk-return balance of Bitcoin mining in the United States has significantly deteriorated. This change may lead to a gradual decline in the U.S. share of the global mining industry relative to other countries.

Of course, existing mining machines that have already been imported to the United States will not be affected—miners have no reason to shut them down. But the path for expansion has now become steep and filled with uncertainty.

At the same time, miners in tax-exempt jurisdictions will continue to scale up, consolidating their competitive advantages. Therefore, it is expected that the global hash rate share of the United States will decline—not because miners are exiting, but because they are no longer growing.

From a more macro perspective, this could lead to a more diverse geographical distribution of Bitcoin mining than ever before. While the United States will still be a major player, its dominance will weaken, and the global hash power distribution will become more balanced. This aligns with the predictions of Kristian Csepcar from Braiins and Summer Meng from Bitmars.

The growth of network computing power will slow down

In the previous section, we explained how the new tariffs will lead to a decline in the United States' share of the global Bitcoin mining industry. Given the important role of the United States in global computing power, its slowdown in growth—if not a complete halt—will inevitably lead to an overall deceleration in the growth of global computing power.

According to data from the Hashrate Index, as of the second quarter of 2025, the United States accounts for about 36% of the global hash rate. In contrast, CBECI data shows that in January 2022, the U.S. share of hash rate was approximately 38%. This indicates that the growth rate of the mining industry in the U.S. over the past three years has been roughly comparable to that of other regions in the world.

Assuming this growth trajectory would continue, the United States would contribute approximately 36% of the future global hash rate growth. Therefore, if the U.S. mining industry stagnates due to the impact of tariffs, it could lead to a reduction of up to 36% in the global hash rate growth rate.

However, the likelihood of the U.S. mining industry completely stopping its growth is extremely low. As we will explain in the next section, these tariffs may be temporary, and there could be ways to circumvent them in the future. Therefore, a more realistic expectation is that the U.S. mining industry will continue to expand, but at a much slower pace than before. The assumption of a 36% reduction in global hash rate growth should be viewed as an absolute upper limit—the actual impact may be somewhat lower.

In the long run, if growth in the United States slows down or stagnates, miners from other countries may accelerate their expansion to gradually fill this gap.

Nevertheless, in the short to medium term—over the next one to two years—we may see global computing power growth slower than previously expected. In an industry where slower growth in computing power means higher income, this will be a welcomed development for miners around the world.

Is this temporary or permanent?

So far, this article has taken a rather pessimistic view of how these tariffs affect the U.S. Bitcoin mining industry—this is reasonable, considering the immediate and severe impacts they may bring. However, the situation is more complex, and there are some important issues worth discussing.

In the following sections, we will address these questions and evaluate how the long-term prospects of the U.S. mining industry can cope with current challenges.

Will Trump revoke the tariffs a few months after their implementation?

It is entirely possible—especially considering the unpredictability and reactiveness of Trump's policy-making style. If the tariffs are lifted, American miners will be able to import mining machines again at competitive prices, alleviating many of the immediate pressures they face.

However, the damage to the confidence of long-term investors may have already been done. Even if tariffs are lifted, the mere fact of their sudden introduction makes it more difficult to carry out large-scale, long-term investments in the U.S. mining industry. In a capital-intensive industry like Bitcoin mining, policy stability is crucial—and that is precisely what is in short supply now.

Can mining machine manufacturers avoid tariffs by importing chips from Taiwan and assembling mining machines in the United States?

Mining machine manufacturers may indeed circumvent tariffs by importing chips from Taiwan and assembling mining machines locally in the United States. According to an official statement from the White House, semiconductors are not subject to reciprocal tariffs. This means that chips can be imported into the U.S. duty-free. However, producing mining machines locally still requires other components, many of which have become more expensive due to tariffs, leading to overall inflation in the U.S. economy.

Currently, manufacturers like MicroBT have established assembly lines in the United States, but Bitmain has not followed suit. Even with MicroBT's assembly capacity, its production capability will be far from sufficient to meet the demand for mining machines in the United States over the next 1-2 years.

Therefore, although this option is technically feasible, it does not address the immediate issues faced by American miners. However, in the long run, we expect that more mining machine assembly will gradually shift to the United States, as manufacturers adapt to the new tariff environment and expand local production capacity. This shift may help reduce reliance on international imports and lessen the impact of tariffs over time.

Is it realistic to establish a complete Bitcoin mining hardware supply chain in the United States, from chip manufacturing to final assembly?

Establishing a complete supply chain for Bitcoin mining hardware in the U.S., from chip manufacturing to final assembly, is a complex challenge, despite strong pushes from both the Bitcoin mining industry and political leaders for localizing chip production. Currently, the most advanced chips used in Bitcoin mining are produced in Taiwan and South Korea, regions with decades of expertise and finely-tuned supply chains. The U.S. dependency on Asian countries for critical components poses a significant geopolitical risk not only for the Bitcoin mining industry but for the entire high-tech sector.

虽然美国将矿机组装本地化是可行的,但持续依赖进口片是一个主要障碍。 像 Bitmain、MicroBT 和 Canaan 这样的公司可以在美国建立组装线,新的参与者如 Auradine 也在关注这一市场。 然而,如果没有本地生产的尖端片,这些制造商在可预见的未来仍将依赖进口。

Braiins 的 Kristian Csepcsar 进一步强调了这一挑战,他说:"芯片代工厂已经在美国建立制造设施,但它们从高纳米级别开始。 培养人才和专业知识以转向更低纳米级别需要数年时间。 这个过程是渐进的——公司先从高纳米片开始以确保投资profit,然后再努力扩展到更先进的技术。 即使美国向前推进,建立建立一个完全本地化的比币挖矿硬件供应链几乎是不可能的,成本将非常高。 真正的问题在于,如果需求很高的,在中国制造并支付关税是否仍然更便宜。 毕竟,在美国启动端到端的制造需要时间和大量投资,就像 Bitmain 最近在中国尝试建立组装线一样——尽管之后没有太多消息。 ”

In short, although the United States has great potential in assembly and chip manufacturing, a fully localized Bitcoin mining hardware supply chain remains a long-term goal rather than a short-term reality. The costs, time, and complexity of this transition make it unlikely that this goal will be achieved on a large scale in the coming years.

Conclusion

In summary, the newly implemented import tariffs on goods will significantly impact the Bitcoin mining industry in the United States—leading to higher hardware prices, a decrease in market share in the U.S., and a slowdown in global hash rate growth—but the long-term effects are more complex.

As the situation develops, miners and industry stakeholders need to closely monitor the political and economic landscape to respond to potential tariff and policy changes. The U.S. mining industry may face challenges in the short term, but there are still opportunities for growth and adaptation within the global mining ecosystem.