Gate News 消息，3 月 24 日，美国国债市场的动向可能正对特朗普政府在伊朗战争中的决策产生深远影响，并间接影响比特币走势。随着冲突持续，十年期美国国债收益率飙升至4.37%，互换利差接近50个基点，市场担忧融资成本上升可能迫使政府重新评估战争策略。荷兰国际集团美洲研究主管 Padhraic Garvey 指出，一旦互换利差突破60个基点，美国政府将面临更高债务融资成本，可能导致整体金融体系收紧，触发股票和比特币市场避险情绪。
分析师指出，十年期国债收益率4.5%至4.6%是关键区间，若突破这一水平，美国政府可能感受到压力，被迫缓和冲突。历史经验显示，收益率升至4.6%时，特朗普曾暂停实施“解放日”关税措施。近期，特朗普宣布暂停对伊朗基础设施袭击，但随后美国与以色列军队仍针对能源设施进行了有限行动，市场对未来政策方向保持高度关注。
CEX 联合创始人兼 Maelstrom Fund 首席投资官 Arthur Hayes 提醒，若收益率升至5%，可能触发小型金融危机，美联储或需注入流动性以稳定市场。这对比特币来说意味着短期价格可能承压下跌，但流动性注入可迅速提振市场多头情绪。
总体来看，比特币交易者需密切关注美国国债收益率和互换利差的变化，因为这两个指标不仅影响美国政府的政策选择，也直接左右风险资产偏好。随着地缘政治紧张局势和金融市场波动交织，比特币在2026年的价格走势可能会出现快速震荡。市场参与者应在投资策略中考虑宏观债市风险和潜在政策干预的影响，尤其是在杠杆交易和多头布局中保持谨慎。(CoinDesk)
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