高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 交易部門近日指出，當前避險基金的部位結構正形成一種特殊局面：投資人一方面維持對個股的多頭配置，另一方面透過 ETF 與指數期貨建立大量空單避險。這種策略正為市場埋下潛在且強烈的空頭回補動能，一旦出現利多消息，股市可能出現快速且劇烈的反彈行情。
(中東戰火推升油價，比特幣持穩在七萬上方)
高盛：機構避險做空部位已達三年內高點
彭博社報導，高盛主經紀業務數據顯示，避險基金目前在美股個股上仍維持相對樂觀的多頭部位，但同時透過交易所交易基金 (ETF) 與指數期貨建立大規模空單，用以對沖整體市場風險。這些宏觀避險空單的規模已上升至 2022 年 9 月以來的最高水平。
避險基金透過 指數與 ETF 做空市場的比例， 已接近 2022 年 9 月左右高點
這反映投資人正積極應對中東戰火延燒、企業信用風險上升、人工智慧支出激增等擔憂，而非單方面看空美股。
利多一旦出現，指數有望急速上漲
高盛美洲股票執行服務主管 John Flood 表示，目前市場的部位結構代表「右尾風險 (Right Tail Risk)」大於左尾風險，也就是大幅上漲的機會可能高於下跌風險。
他表示：「若出現重大利多消息，例如地緣政治衝突降溫，市場可能迅速出現空單回補 (short covering)，推動指數短時間內大幅上漲。」
Flood 舉例說，在極端情況下，美股指數甚至可能出現 2% 至 3% 的直線式飆升，主要動能將來自宏觀避險空單的回補：
投資人在週一初步體驗了這種行情，當時 S&P 500 早盤先是下跌 1.5%，最後在川普總統表示與伊朗的戰爭將「很快」解決後，收盤上漲 0.8%。
高槓桿與低流動性將放大市場波動
高盛同時指出，目前避險基金的總曝險 (Gross Exposure) 高達 307% 創歷史新高，這代表基金同時持有大量多頭與空頭部位，市場槓桿程度偏高，同時市場流動性深度也出現明顯下降的情況。
高盛估計，目前 S&P 500 期貨在最佳買賣價位的交易深度僅約 400 萬美元，遠低於歷史平均約 1,400 萬美元。流動性不足意味著大型機構的交易更容易推動價格波動，可能使未來幾週市場出現更劇烈的漲跌。
市場觀望：靜待地緣政治與經濟訊號穩定
儘管市場仍存在潛在反彈動能，但高盛指出，目前許多長期資金，如傳統資產管理機構與主權基金，仍採取觀望態度。此外，散戶投資者仍是近期股市的重要買盤來源，但若未來就業數據持續惡化，散戶需求也可能轉弱。
如今，市場目前正處於高度不確定階段。若地緣政治衝突在短期內出現緩和跡象，避險空單回補可能迅速推動股市反彈；反之，若不確定性持續延長，美股仍可能面臨新的波動與壓力。
這篇文章 高盛警告：美股存在「極端反彈」動能，避險空單引爆空頭回補上漲行情 最早出現於 鏈新聞 ABMedia。
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