Possible trend analysis of iron ore in the near future, need to follow......

GoldenOctober2024 · 2024-07-29T00:30:42+00:00

1. Steel mills will not reduce production, and the output of hot metal will maintain a phased peak. Judging from the current situation, although the profits of most steel mills have turned negative, they have not yet reached the point of large-scale loss of cash flow and must reduce production, and steel mills can cope with losses in the short term by adjusting the ratio of scrap and medium and high-grade ore. Recently, the daily consumption of scrap steel has continued to decline, providing some space for molten iron production, and steel mills are willing to mine low-priced ores, and the price spread of medium and high-grade ores is expected to narrow. If the demand for finished steel products does not continue to deteriorate and the inventory pressure in the off-season is reduced, the pressure on hot metal production will also be eased. In the future, if the new and old national standards of rebar can achieve a smooth transition, it will be good for the overall sentiment of the black system. The short-term downward drive of disk prices will be significantly weakened, and the disk may fluctuate or have a small Rebound. The risk point is the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut meeting on overall market sentiment. 2. Steel mills continued to lose money and were forced to reduce production. If our relevant assumptions in (1) are falsified by reality, and the profits of steel mills do not improve or continue to deteriorate, the negative feedback process may continue, and eventually lead to the continued decline of iron ore prices at the raw material end. In the case of this year's iron ore port inventory is extremely high, the "resistance" to the price decline is insufficient, and the disk is likely to test the cost of 90 US dollars for non-mainstream mines, corresponding to the disk price of about 700 yuan/ton.

GoldenOctober2024

2024-07-29 00:30:42

Abstract generation in progress

Steel mills will not reduce production, and the output of hot metal will maintain a phased peak. Judging from the current situation, although the profits of most steel mills have turned negative, they have not yet reached the point of large-scale loss of cash flow and must reduce production, and steel mills can cope with losses in the short term by adjusting the ratio of scrap and medium and high-grade ore. Recently, the daily consumption of scrap steel has continued to decline, providing some space for molten iron production, and steel mills are willing to mine low-priced ores, and the price spread of medium and high-grade ores is expected to narrow. If the demand for finished steel products does not continue to deteriorate and the inventory pressure in the off-season is reduced, the pressure on hot metal production will also be eased. In the future, if the new and old national standards of rebar can achieve a smooth transition, it will be good for the overall sentiment of the black system. The short-term downward drive of disk prices will be significantly weakened, and the disk may fluctuate or have a small Rebound. The risk point is the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut meeting on overall market sentiment. 2. Steel mills continued to lose money and were forced to reduce production. If our relevant assumptions in (1) are falsified by reality, and the profits of steel mills do not improve or continue to deteriorate, the negative feedback process may continue, and eventually lead to the continued decline of iron ore prices at the raw material end. In the case of this year's iron ore port inventory is extremely high, the "resistance" to the price decline is insufficient, and the disk is likely to test the cost of 90 US dollars for non-mainstream mines, corresponding to the disk price of about 700 yuan/ton.

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