(1) Australia's annual wage growth rate in the fourth quarter hit a 15-year high, as low unemployment and fierce competition for talent pushed up salaries. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that the wage price index rose 0.9% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, in line with market forecasts. Wage growth reached a record 1.3% in the third quarter.
(2) The year-on-year increase in the wage price index rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, the largest increase since early 2009 and slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.1%.
(3) Analysts expect wage growth to slow down as the hot job market cools, which will be a welcome sign for the RBA. To curb inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates by 425 basis points to a 12-year high of 4.35%.
(4) The minutes of the RBA meeting released on Tuesday noted that wage growth in some areas of the job market has begun to slow, which is one of the reasons why the RBA paused interest rate hikes earlier this month.
(5) Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Australia at Oxford Economics, noted that "the labour market is starting to slow, which will eventually depress wage growth." However, Langcake said that there are still a lot of catch-up wage increases to be on the horizon and employment is still tight, so it is expected that wage growth will remain around 0.8%-0.9% month-on-month throughout 2024.
(6) According to the report, wage growth in the fourth quarter was driven by the public sector, which rose by 4.3%, the largest increase since March 2010, while private sector wage growth slowed to 4.2% from 4.3% in the previous quarter.
(7) Michelle Marquardt, director of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the higher increase in public sector wages is due to the recent signing of labour agreements in the healthcare, welfare, education and training sectors following changes in the national wage policy.
(8) The market still believes that the RBA's tightening cycle is over, but believes that there will only be modest easing of 38bps in 2024, most likely in the second half of the year. The first rate cut may not wait until August or September
(9) Australia's unemployment rate reached a two-year high of 4.1% in January, and the number of hours worked fell further evidence of a loose labour market. Consumers have also reduced their spending on discretionary goods. However, the RBA still considered the labour market to be tight in the minutes
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Australia's fourth-quarter wage growth rate hit a 15-year high, but the quarter-on-quarter growth rate slowed
(1) Australia's annual wage growth rate in the fourth quarter hit a 15-year high, as low unemployment and fierce competition for talent pushed up salaries. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that the wage price index rose 0.9% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, in line with market forecasts. Wage growth reached a record 1.3% in the third quarter. (2) The year-on-year increase in the wage price index rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, the largest increase since early 2009 and slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.1%. (3) Analysts expect wage growth to slow down as the hot job market cools, which will be a welcome sign for the RBA. To curb inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates by 425 basis points to a 12-year high of 4.35%. (4) The minutes of the RBA meeting released on Tuesday noted that wage growth in some areas of the job market has begun to slow, which is one of the reasons why the RBA paused interest rate hikes earlier this month. (5) Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Australia at Oxford Economics, noted that "the labour market is starting to slow, which will eventually depress wage growth." However, Langcake said that there are still a lot of catch-up wage increases to be on the horizon and employment is still tight, so it is expected that wage growth will remain around 0.8%-0.9% month-on-month throughout 2024. (6) According to the report, wage growth in the fourth quarter was driven by the public sector, which rose by 4.3%, the largest increase since March 2010, while private sector wage growth slowed to 4.2% from 4.3% in the previous quarter. (7) Michelle Marquardt, director of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the higher increase in public sector wages is due to the recent signing of labour agreements in the healthcare, welfare, education and training sectors following changes in the national wage policy. (8) The market still believes that the RBA's tightening cycle is over, but believes that there will only be modest easing of 38bps in 2024, most likely in the second half of the year. The first rate cut may not wait until August or September (9) Australia's unemployment rate reached a two-year high of 4.1% in January, and the number of hours worked fell further evidence of a loose labour market. Consumers have also reduced their spending on discretionary goods. However, the RBA still considered the labour market to be tight in the minutes