Analyst: Bitcoin options bullish and bearish bets are polarized, and capital flow indicates a cautious sentiment

BlockBeats News, December 18 — According to The Block, Derive founder Nick Forster stated that traders have significantly shifted towards defensive structural configurations. The 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin has risen to nearly 45%, while skew remains around -5%; longer-term skew is similarly anchored at this level in the first and second quarters of next year. Around the upcoming expiration date, market positions show a clear polarization. At the $100,000 and $120,000 strike prices, open interest in call options continues to accumulate, indicating that some traders are still betting on a strong rebound in Bitcoin. However, overall capital flow indicates a more cautious sentiment. Forster pointed out that shorts are accumulating “a sizable open interest in put options” near the $85,000 strike price to prevent Bitcoin from falling below this key level in the short term. He added that the implied probability from options still reflects a grim market environment: the market assigns only about a 30% chance for Bitcoin to reach $100,000, and only about a 10% chance to reclaim its all-time high.