Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment provide dual Favourable Information: gold prices approach a new high of 3500 dollars, and Bitcoin prices are poised to rise.

The weakening of the US dollar, safe-haven demand, and expectations of Fed interest rate cuts have jointly driven gold prices to soar to $3,490 per ounce, reaching a new high in four months. The upcoming key economic data from the US (such as ISM, JOLTS, ADP, and the non-farm payroll report) will become the focus of market attention, and its performance will determine the future trend of gold prices. While the gold market is shining brightly, Bitcoin is also consolidating its position as an institutional reserve asset. Japanese company Metaplanet has increased its Bitcoin holdings to 20,000 coins, while the University of Hong Kong has launched a pilot program to pay tuition fees with Bitcoin, highlighting the accelerated adoption of Bitcoin in businesses and the real world. Technically, Bitcoin prices are gaining solid support around $108,000 and are building momentum for the next breakout.

Gold Price Forecast: Multiple Positive Factors Drive Gold Prices to New Highs

As traders bet on the Fed possibly cutting rates in September, gold prices continued their upward trajectory into early September 2025. Spot gold (XAUUSD) today reached its highest level in nearly four months, hitting $3,490 per ounce, and is currently holding strong around $3,470.

Factors driving the rise in gold prices include a weaker dollar, declining government bond yields, and a flow of safe-haven funds in response to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Market confidence that the Fed will ease monetary policy more quickly is increasingly strong, providing strong support for gold. Nevertheless, investors remain cautious as they follow the release of important U.S. economic data this week, which could either support or refute the current optimistic expectations.

(Source: TradingView)

Analysis suggests that as long as the gold price remains above 3345 - 3350 USD, the strategy of buying on dips remains effective. The current trend is still optimistic. If the price can break through 3490 USD, it may retest the range of 3440 - 3500 USD and ultimately break through to set a new historical high.

Key Economic Events Influencing Gold Price Trends

Several important U.S. economic reports set to be released this week are expected to significantly impact gold (XAUUSD):

• September 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI. If the PMI is stronger than expected, it may limit the upside potential for gold, but if the reading is below 50, it would still reflect a contraction in the manufacturing sector, which would support gold's safe-haven attributes.
• September 3: JOLTS Job Openings. A decrease in job openings will indicate a cooling labor market, thereby increasing market expectations for a dovish stance from the Fed, which is positive for gold.
• September 4: ADP Employment Data, Unemployment Claims, ISM Services PMI. If the ADP employment data is weak, it will support gold prices due to a softening labor market. Unemployment claims remain unchanged at 229,000, which may have limited impact, while a slight strengthening of the services PMI might exert slight pressure on gold prices.
• September 5: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Wage Growth, Unemployment Rate. If non-farm employment is close to 74,000 and the unemployment rate slightly rises to 4.3%, the market may interpret this as a sign of a weak labor market, which would be positive for gold. However, if wage growth remains stable, it may still raise inflation concerns and limit the rise in gold prices.

Overall, the data this week tends to show continued weakness in the labor market and manufacturing, which provides a favorable backdrop for gold, although strong performance in wages and the service sector may limit its upward momentum.

According to technical analysis, gold is approaching its historical high of 3500 USD, and investors can expect this high point to be broken this week.

Gold Trading Strategies and Investment Advice

According to the 1-hour chart, the first buying area for gold is located in the gold Fibonacci zone and POC level, at 3447 - 3436 USD. According to the 4-hour chart, 3416 - 3404 USD is the order block and the starting point for the bullish momentum rally in gold. Investors can expect the price to retest this level and gain a strong rebound.

In summary, this week gold may see a tug of war between buyers and sellers, but buying positions are still strongly favored. Although lower time frames show sell signals, higher time frames still lean towards buying.

Bitcoin Dynamics: Institutional Adoption and Whale Activity Become the Focus

The current trading price of Bitcoin is $109,380, with a market capitalization exceeding $2.18 trillion and a daily trading volume of over $66 billion. Although the price trend remains constrained within a descending channel, institutional adoption and whale activity are reshaping the market landscape for this largest global cryptocurrency.

Institutional Adoption Accelerates:

• Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Reserves: Japanese investment firm Metaplanet has increased its holdings to 20,000 BTC after purchasing an additional 1,009 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $112 million. According to data from BitcoinTreasuries.net, Metaplanet has now become Japan's largest Bitcoin holder and ranks fifth globally among corporate holders. Despite its stock price dropping over 50% since June, the company plans to raise more funds to elevate its Bitcoin strategic goal to 30,000 BTC by the end of the year. This aggressive strategy highlights the growing importance of corporate balance sheets in supporting Bitcoin demand.
• The Application of Bitcoin in Education: The University of Hong Kong has launched a pilot program to allow students to pay tuition fees with Bitcoin. This program, in collaboration with fintech providers, enables the instant conversion of Bitcoin to Hong Kong dollars, thereby reducing transaction costs and providing convenience for students. Analysts believe that this model may be emulated by other universities in Asia, thereby broadening the role of Bitcoin as a medium for everyday transactions.

Whale Fund Flow:

• A whale holding over $11 billion in Bitcoin has shifted part of its holdings to Ethereum. The wallet sold $215 million worth of BTC last week and purchased 886,371 ETH, worth nearly $4 billion, surpassing the Ethereum reserves of corporate holder SharpLink. This move has inspired other whales, with 9 major wallets buying over $456 million in ETH within just a few days. Meanwhile, the spot Ethereum ETF attracted $1.8 billion in inflows over five days, indicating increasing institutional interest in Ethereum. Although such capital flows may exert pressure on Bitcoin in the short term, they do not undermine its position as the dominant store of value in the crypto market.

Bitcoin Technical and Market Outlook

(Source: TradingView)

Technically, Bitcoin has been in a downward channel since mid-August. The key resistance level is around 111,350 - 113,500 USD while the support levels are at 107,335 USD and 105,150 USD. The 50-day moving average (110,257 USD) and the 200-day moving average (112,814 USD) form a critical resistance range. After bouncing back from 108,000 USD, the candlestick chart shows a hesitant trend, but the RSI is at a neutral level of 49, showing a slight bullish divergence, and the MACD is flattening, suggesting a potential crossover may be imminent.

If a breakout above 111,350 USD can be confirmed, it may open the way for a rise towards 115,700 USD. However, if it fails to break through, there is a risk of a drop towards 105,150 USD. Looking ahead, Bitcoin's consolidation indicates that volatility is likely to increase. If retail and institutional demand continues at the current pace, BTC is expected to break through and retest historical highs, potentially moving towards 130,000 USD and 250,000 USD in the future.

Conclusion

Gold and Bitcoin, two assets that are currently attracting significant attention in the macroeconomic environment, are each demonstrating unique upward driving forces. Gold's strong performance primarily stems from optimistic expectations regarding Fed interest rate cuts and its traditional safe-haven attributes, making it the preferred choice for investors amid uncertainty. In contrast, Bitcoin's growth momentum is largely driven by its increasingly solid institutional adoption, from corporate reserves to real-world payment use cases, all of which provide robust fundamental support for its price. Although the market may fluctuate in the short term due to data releases and capital flows, both show a strong long-term bullish trend, warranting close follow from investors.