The Q4 race: Solana challenges BNB, Binance is determined not to back down

Solana (SOL) has surged 14.65% this month, reclaiming the market capitalization milestone of 100 billion USD that it lost earlier this year. Since the price zone of 172 USD, SOL has added nearly 10 billion USD to its market value.

On the contrary, Binance Coin (BNB) only increased by about 9%. However, this coin remains strong at a record market capitalization of 120 billion USD, corresponding to a price of 850 USD per token. In other words, Solana still needs about 20% more market capitalization to close the gap with BNB in the current cycle.

A noteworthy highlight is that the SOL/BNB ratio is closing out August with an increase of 4.5% from the zone of 0.21 – marking the first month of growth for Solana against BNB since May. This indicates that SOL is gradually regaining relative strength and restarting its recovery momentum on-chain.

Monthly chart of SOL/BNB | Source: TradingViewIn summary, the scenario of Solana "turning the tables" against Binance Coin is not far off. Technically, SOL needs to advance another 20% to catch up with BNB, corresponding to a price target of 234 USD compared to the current zone of 190 USD. This is a confident step, and signals for a new growth cycle are gradually emerging.

However, the challenges ahead are not easy. BNB has continuously set historical peaks, the most recent being 900 USD on August 22, just as SOL reached the resistance level of 210 USD. This promises a "direct confrontation" between the two assets in the remainder of Q3.

Is BNB "playing tricks" with Solana's market capitalization?

Solana once reached a market capitalization of 115 billion USD but could not maintain it for long, leading to many speculations in the market.

In just one day, the price of SOL plunged nearly 8% from its peak of 213 USD, wiping out about 10 billion USD in market capitalization. This development further raises the thought that Binance Coin (BNB) may have relied on Wintermute to curb the rise of Solana, in order to protect its market capitalization position.

Although it is still just a hypothesis, the SOL/BNB ratio has decreased by 3%, reflecting the relative weakening of Solana as well as the shift in liquidity towards BNB. On-chain, the number of daily active addresses on Binance Smart Chain (BSC) increased by 7%, while Solana recorded a decrease of 3% — further reinforcing this trend.

Source: Artemis TerminalThe distance between the two ecosystems is even more pronounced. Considering many other metrics, Binance Chain is maintaining a significant monthly advantage, even though during the same period, BNB only increased by 9% compared to 14% of SOL. This indicates that the ATH milestones achieved by BNB are not just a short-term explosive phenomenon.

In conclusion, the hypothesis that "Solana is being suppressed" lacks a solid foundation. Both on-chain data and technical analysis indicate that SOL still has a long journey ahead if it wants to challenge BNB's position. Meanwhile, Binance Coin continues to demonstrate strength and stability, becoming a more prominent name as the market enters the second half of the year.

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