Jin10整理：Japan Central Bank decision and Ueda Kazuo press conference highlights overview——reduce monthly government bond purchase scale, introduce policies in the second half of the year to address the impact of trade situation.

GoldenOctober2024 · 2025-06-17T07:39:32+00:00

1. Interest rate path: unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged; Whether further rate hikes are raised will depend on the likelihood of achieving our expectations; It is impossible to comment on the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term If the economy and prices continue to improve, interest rate hikes will continue. In some cases, it is possible to control long-term yields. 2. Economic outlook: Japan's economy is showing a modest recovery, although there are still some signs of weakness. It is believed that the downside risks to the economy and prices are more serious, and that loose monetary conditions will support the economy, and that reducing the negative impact of easing policies on the macro economy will not be significant. 3. Inflation outlook: Japan's inflation expectations have not stabilized at the 2% target, and core inflation is not rising at an accelerated pace. Rising food prices and the conflict in the Middle East, if persisted, could have a secondary impact on trend inflation. 4. Wage increases: Tariffs can affect corporate earnings, year-end bonuses, and wage negotiations. It is difficult to tell when we will be able to confirm the impact of declining corporate profits on wages. 6. Overseas risks: The full impact of trade policy is likely to be felt gradually in the second half of this year, and it is planned to address the impact of trade policy through policy in the second half of 2025. 7. Bond Purchase Program: The company plans to reduce the size of its monthly government bond purchases, and plans to purchase 325 billion yen of 3-5-year Japanese government bonds 3 times per month from July to September (previously 275 billion yen, 4 times), and the total purchase is expected to be about 2 trillion yen from January to March 2027. By March 2027, the size of JGBs held by the Bank of Japan will fall by about 16-17% from June 2024 levels. The bond purchase plan for April 2027 and beyond will be announced in June next year.

GoldenOctober2024

2025-06-17 07:39:32

Abstract generation in progress

Interest rate path: unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged; Whether further rate hikes are raised will depend on the likelihood of achieving our expectations; It is impossible to comment on the likelihood of a rate hike in the near term If the economy and prices continue to improve, interest rate hikes will continue. In some cases, it is possible to control long-term yields. 2. Economic outlook: Japan's economy is showing a modest recovery, although there are still some signs of weakness. It is believed that the downside risks to the economy and prices are more serious, and that loose monetary conditions will support the economy, and that reducing the negative impact of easing policies on the macro economy will not be significant. 3. Inflation outlook: Japan's inflation expectations have not stabilized at the 2% target, and core inflation is not rising at an accelerated pace. Rising food prices and the conflict in the Middle East, if persisted, could have a secondary impact on trend inflation. 4. Wage increases: Tariffs can affect corporate earnings, year-end bonuses, and wage negotiations. It is difficult to tell when we will be able to confirm the impact of declining corporate profits on wages. 6. Overseas risks: The full impact of trade policy is likely to be felt gradually in the second half of this year, and it is planned to address the impact of trade policy through policy in the second half of 2025. 7. Bond Purchase Program: The company plans to reduce the size of its monthly government bond purchases, and plans to purchase 325 billion yen of 3-5-year Japanese government bonds 3 times per month from July to September (previously 275 billion yen, 4 times), and the total purchase is expected to be about 2 trillion yen from January to March 2027. By March 2027, the size of JGBs held by the Bank of Japan will fall by about 16-17% from June 2024 levels. The bond purchase plan for April 2027 and beyond will be announced in June next year.

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