Gold has embarked on a new uptrend cycle since early November, accumulating gains exceeding 14% in just a few weeks. In the most recent trading session, gold prices touched $4,497, just one step away from the round number of $4,500. The daily chart shows the formation of a series of higher highs, signaling that the uptrend maintains momentum. However, the RSI technical indicator has remained in overbought territory for an extended period, suggesting that risks of near-term consolidation at highs or profit-taking are gradually heating up.
Weak Dollar and Strong Yen Drive Gold Higher
The US dollar is testing the critical support level of 98.0, while the Japanese yen has shown a clear strengthening trend following warnings from Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama Sakatsuki to speculators at their most severe level to date. When the yen strengthened to around 132.0 yen per US dollar, it reflected a situation of continued pressure on the dollar. Once the dollar breaks below 98.0, further downside room will be opened up, providing positive support for dollar-priced commodities such as gold.
Fed Policy Expectations Reshape Market Landscape
Federal Reserve Board member Miran stated on Monday that if rate cuts do not continue next year, the risk of economic recession will increase and unemployment may rise. The market expects the Fed to pause rate cuts in January 2026, followed by 25 basis point cuts in March and June respectively, ultimately guiding the federal funds rate to the 3% to 3.25% range.
Inflation Data Releases Positive Signals
US November CPI grew 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation rising to 2.6%, both falling short of market expectations of 3.1% and 3%. This lower-than-expected inflation performance sets the stage for two rate cuts by the Fed next year and also eases market concerns over elevated prices. Pending economic data releases including October durable goods orders, November industrial production, and Q3 core PCE will further provide clues for the US outlook.
Geopolitical Risks Continue to Support
Progress in Ukraine-US peace negotiations remains limited, and US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers continue to escalate, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to provide support for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors tend to increase their gold allocation during periods of heightened tensions.
2026 Outlook: Fiscal Deficit Takes Center Stage
Looking ahead to next year, the US fiscal deficit issue is expected to return to investors’ attention. Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against national debt risk and dollar depreciation. With long-term government bond yields rising in major countries, it is not ruled out that the Fed may cut rates more than expected or even adopt unconventional measures such as quantitative easing or yield curve control, all of which will add bullish imagination space to gold’s trajectory.
JPMorgan Chase expects that tariff uncertainty combined with strong demand from exchange-traded funds and central banks could drive gold prices to historic highs above $4,000 in 2025. New demand from Chinese insurance institutions and the cryptocurrency community could further help gold prices reach $5,055 by the end of 2026.
Near-term Positioning Recommendations
Given the approaching Christmas holiday, market trading volume may shrivel, leading to widened trading ranges. Investors should be wary of profit-taking risks following the recent rapid rally in gold, while closely monitoring the $4,450 level as the division between bulls and bears. As long as gold prices remain above $4,450, a bullish stance should be maintained; once this level is broken, precautions need to be taken against the possibility of entering a high-level consolidation zone.
金価格が4500ドルの節目に迫る：ドルの弱さと中央銀行の政策が次の上昇を促進
Technical Support for Strong Uptrend
Gold has embarked on a new uptrend cycle since early November, accumulating gains exceeding 14% in just a few weeks. In the most recent trading session, gold prices touched $4,497, just one step away from the round number of $4,500. The daily chart shows the formation of a series of higher highs, signaling that the uptrend maintains momentum. However, the RSI technical indicator has remained in overbought territory for an extended period, suggesting that risks of near-term consolidation at highs or profit-taking are gradually heating up.
Weak Dollar and Strong Yen Drive Gold Higher
The US dollar is testing the critical support level of 98.0, while the Japanese yen has shown a clear strengthening trend following warnings from Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama Sakatsuki to speculators at their most severe level to date. When the yen strengthened to around 132.0 yen per US dollar, it reflected a situation of continued pressure on the dollar. Once the dollar breaks below 98.0, further downside room will be opened up, providing positive support for dollar-priced commodities such as gold.
Fed Policy Expectations Reshape Market Landscape
Federal Reserve Board member Miran stated on Monday that if rate cuts do not continue next year, the risk of economic recession will increase and unemployment may rise. The market expects the Fed to pause rate cuts in January 2026, followed by 25 basis point cuts in March and June respectively, ultimately guiding the federal funds rate to the 3% to 3.25% range.
Inflation Data Releases Positive Signals
US November CPI grew 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation rising to 2.6%, both falling short of market expectations of 3.1% and 3%. This lower-than-expected inflation performance sets the stage for two rate cuts by the Fed next year and also eases market concerns over elevated prices. Pending economic data releases including October durable goods orders, November industrial production, and Q3 core PCE will further provide clues for the US outlook.
Geopolitical Risks Continue to Support
Progress in Ukraine-US peace negotiations remains limited, and US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers continue to escalate, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to provide support for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors tend to increase their gold allocation during periods of heightened tensions.
2026 Outlook: Fiscal Deficit Takes Center Stage
Looking ahead to next year, the US fiscal deficit issue is expected to return to investors’ attention. Gold is increasingly viewed as a hedge against national debt risk and dollar depreciation. With long-term government bond yields rising in major countries, it is not ruled out that the Fed may cut rates more than expected or even adopt unconventional measures such as quantitative easing or yield curve control, all of which will add bullish imagination space to gold’s trajectory.
JPMorgan Chase expects that tariff uncertainty combined with strong demand from exchange-traded funds and central banks could drive gold prices to historic highs above $4,000 in 2025. New demand from Chinese insurance institutions and the cryptocurrency community could further help gold prices reach $5,055 by the end of 2026.
Near-term Positioning Recommendations
Given the approaching Christmas holiday, market trading volume may shrivel, leading to widened trading ranges. Investors should be wary of profit-taking risks following the recent rapid rally in gold, while closely monitoring the $4,450 level as the division between bulls and bears. As long as gold prices remain above $4,450, a bullish stance should be maintained; once this level is broken, precautions need to be taken against the possibility of entering a high-level consolidation zone.