#美联储政策 Recently, I've been observing some major moves by traders in U.S. Treasury options, and I have some thoughts I'd like to share with everyone. They're betting that the 10-year Treasury yield will return to 4% within weeks, with $80 million in option premiums flowing in just one week and option contracts surging 300%—the activity is certainly intense.
But this reminds us of something important: markets are always filled with various bets and expectations. No matter how shrewd traders are, it's nearly impossible to predict the Fed's policy direction with 100% certainty, and economic data is constantly changing. We're seeing the 10-year yield fluctuate between 4.16%-4.20%, which itself reflects the market's uncertainty.
In such an environment, what matters more than chasing yield movements is managing your own position size well. Regardless of how the bond market fluctuates, the stability of core asset allocation is the foundation of long-term wealth security. Blindly following market sentiment often leads us to make hasty decisions amid volatility.
My suggestion is to return to fundamentals: assess your own risk tolerance, determine a reasonable asset allocation ratio, and then hold patiently. Fed policy, yield movements, and other macro factors will keep changing, but your long-term mindset and risk management strategy are what will truly help you navigate cycles.
Trust in the power of time more than you trust every market fluctuation.
#美联储政策 Recently, I've been observing some major moves by traders in U.S. Treasury options, and I have some thoughts I'd like to share with everyone. They're betting that the 10-year Treasury yield will return to 4% within weeks, with $80 million in option premiums flowing in just one week and option contracts surging 300%—the activity is certainly intense.
But this reminds us of something important: markets are always filled with various bets and expectations. No matter how shrewd traders are, it's nearly impossible to predict the Fed's policy direction with 100% certainty, and economic data is constantly changing. We're seeing the 10-year yield fluctuate between 4.16%-4.20%, which itself reflects the market's uncertainty.
In such an environment, what matters more than chasing yield movements is managing your own position size well. Regardless of how the bond market fluctuates, the stability of core asset allocation is the foundation of long-term wealth security. Blindly following market sentiment often leads us to make hasty decisions amid volatility.
My suggestion is to return to fundamentals: assess your own risk tolerance, determine a reasonable asset allocation ratio, and then hold patiently. Fed policy, yield movements, and other macro factors will keep changing, but your long-term mindset and risk management strategy are what will truly help you navigate cycles.
Trust in the power of time more than you trust every market fluctuation.