U.S. Treasury long positions face a double test of inflation and non-farm revisions this week.

[The US Treasury Long Positions Face Dual Tests of Inflation and Non-Farm Revisions This Week] US Treasury long positions will face dual tests of inflation and non-farm revisions this week. The yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasuries closed at their lowest levels since early April last week, with traders fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September and expecting further cuts by the end of the year. The focus this week will begin on Tuesday when the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its preliminary benchmark revision for the 2025 non-farm employment survey data. Whether the market can maintain its rise this month will partly depend on the tone of the PPI and CPI, which will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Traders will also pay attention to how the market absorbs the auctions of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries. Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy at UBS, stated, "The pace of rate cuts this year will slow down and be orderly, with a data-dependent rhetoric continuing. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September is very low. Even if inflation data comes in below market expectations, we will not see them take such aggressive actions." ( Jin10 )