The Civilizational Crisis under Liquidity Bubbles: Analyzing the Current Economic Dilemma

Today's society is in the final stage of high financialization. Some cryptocurrencies can surge tenfold in just a month but may also plummet by 20% in a single day. However, such extreme volatility often surprises the market. We are in a bubble, but the bubble is just a facade. The deeper issues lie in Liquidity, market distortions, and a civilization system that is gradually collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.

When the S&P 500 index hits a new high, people are jubilant. But if we take a step back, the so-called historical new high is merely an illusion of liquidity, measured by a currency lacking substantial support and driven by inflation. Adjusted for inflation, the S&P index has actually seen no substantial growth since the turn of the 21st century. This is not real "growth"; it merely reflects the expansion of the money supply.

The adjustment of interest rates can no longer solve the fundamental problems we face. We are facing structural challenges, among which three key issues are particularly important:

1. The Slow Collapse of the Debt System

The modern monetary order has reached its end. It is built on an ever-expanding base of debt and is now facing irreconcilable internal contradictions. Traditional stimulus measures, bailout plans, and policy shifts rely on a key illusion: the more debt there is, the higher the level of prosperity.

However, this illusion is breaking down. Productivity growth has stagnated, and the demographic structure is at odds with this system. The working-age population is shrinking, the dependency ratio is increasing, and consumption is increasingly reliant on credit rather than income. This economic machine is aging and can no longer self-repair.

The 2008 financial crisis should have burst this bubble, but it did not. The COVID-19 pandemic achieved this at a heavy moral cost. The responses of many governments indicate that survival is not a right that is equal for everyone.

This has led to the decline of institutional legitimacy. Many institutions today resemble shells supported by surveillance, subsidies, and manipulation of public opinion. Certain high-profile cases are not anomalies but rather expose the true power structure: a complex system where crime, governance, and capital are intertwined.

2. The Closure of Intelligent Technology

The discussion about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) remains stuck in naive optimism. Many people believe that AI will become as ubiquitous as Excel or cloud services, becoming a productivity tool that profits through a subscription model.

This idea is too idealistic. If machines gain the ability to self-improve, simulate complex systems, and design new types of weapons, whether biological, chemical, or information weapons, they are unlikely to become open-source technology.

Just as nuclear technology has not been democratized and CRISPR technology cannot be used indiscriminately, every powerful technology will ultimately become a tool for state governance. Superintelligence is no exception.

The public may not have direct access to AGI. They can only interact with stripped-down fragments of AI that are encapsulated within user interfaces. The truly powerful systems will be hidden, restricted, and trained to serve specific strategic purposes.

3. Time Becomes the New Currency

Traditionally, money can buy comfort, safety, and social status, but it cannot buy time. This situation is changing. With the rapid advancement of AI decoding genomes and synthetic biology, we are entering an era where longevity may become an engineered advantage.

However, this is not a universal public health revolution. The real technologies for lifespan extension, cognitive enhancement, and embryo optimization may be extremely expensive, subject to strict regulation, and politically controversial. Governments around the world are already burdened by an aging population and are unlikely to encourage universal longevity.

Therefore, the rich will not only become richer, but they may also be biologically different. The ability to alter the human genetic blueprint will create a new economic class: those who can escape the conventional death curve through biotechnology patents.

Such a future is difficult to promote on a large scale and may become a privileged path. Longevity may become the ultimate luxury, serving only a few. This explains why many "longevity funds" perform poorly—because survival itself cannot be scaled.

The Three Civilizational Orbits of the Future

Today's society is diversifying into different tracks, each of which has its specific political and economic model:

1. The numb masses: a world composed of AI-generated dopamine loops, social media, virtual entertainment, etc. This group is overstimulated, malnourished, and politically insignificant. This could be the future for the majority.

2. Cognitive Elite: A minority group whose biology and intellect have been enhanced. They do not pursue traditional economic returns, but seek control over biology and death. This group is smaller, wealthier, and increasingly difficult to access.

3. New Generation Hermits: A group of people who choose to withdraw from mainstream systems. They disconnect from technology, seeking meaning outside of machines, trying to preserve human experiences in an increasingly dehumanized world. They may be spiritually richer, but strategically they may be doomed to fail.

The first type of person provides financial support to the second type of person. The third type of person attempts to resist the first two.

Most people may flow with the tide, barely surviving, unaware that they have become products of the system rather than participants. For those who can foresee the future, choosing to opt out is no longer a neutral choice, but a form of resistance.

Clear Strategies in a Fractured World

The market is filled with noise. Cryptocurrencies, stocks, and various yield games are merely optional tools, not a path to redemption. The real challenge lies in how to survive in a system collapse and under what conditions to survive.

Key Insights:

• The current currency system design is continuously degrading.
• Superintelligence may not become a productivity tool for the average person.
• Biotechnology may turn time itself into a scarce resource.
• Some high-profile cases reveal the unaccountability of power.

After understanding these issues, the key is not how to "beat the market", but how to prepare for asymmetrical situations in a system that no longer serves ordinary participants.

True insights do not come from price trends, but from systematic thinking.

Most people do not look up to see the bigger picture. Many do not realize the truth until it is too late. Because living in ignorance is often easier to accept than facing the difficulties with clarity.