Part 1: Bitcoin miners’ selling pressure drops to the lowest level since 2024 - Is the market gathering momentum to reach new highs again?

Miner behavior shift: from selling to holding

According to the latest data from the cryptocurrency analysis platform Alphractal, the Bitcoin miner selling pressure index (measuring the ratio of outflow to reserves within 30 days) has fallen below the lower bound, reaching the lowest level since 2024. This phenomenon indicates that miners are shifting from the past model of “selling to cover operating costs” to strategic accumulation.

This contrasts sharply with the dilemma of halving miner income in 2024 (at that time, the daily sales volume of miners increased from 900 coins to 1200 coins), but the changing market environment has prompted miners to adjust their strategies:

• Profit expectations drive hoarding: With the recent breakthrough of the Bitcoin price to nearly $100,000 and approaching historical highs, miners are more inclined to hold Bitcoin to wait for higher returns, rather than short-term cashing out.
• Structural optimization of the industry: The scale development of the mining industry dominated by listed companies (such as Bitfarms, CleanSpark) has reduced the risk of inefficient miners exiting, and the increased industry concentration has alleviated selling pressure.
• Historical experience reference: In past cycles, miners’ over-leverage and long-term holdings have led to liquidity crises (such as the bear market in 2018), now more emphasis on short-term financial stability.

2. Market Resilience Revealed by On-chain Data

Alphractal’s Miner Selling Pressure Index shows that the current market structure is completely different from the ‘panic selling’ at the beginning of 2024:

• Long-term holders dominate: Currently, Bitcoin holdings held for more than 6 months account for over 80%, significantly lower than the dominance of short-term holders at historical cycle peaks, providing stable support for prices.
• Exchange reserves hit a new low: Bitcoin exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating that the market is in a “rapid accumulation phase,” with selling pressure being dispersed by off-exchange trading or institutional holdings.
• Derivatives market risk: Although the spot market is stable, there is a large amount of high-leverage long positions in the $100,000 to $110,000 range. Price fluctuations may trigger a clearing wave of several billion dollars.

3. Price trend and future expectations

As of May 12, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was $104,250, a 1% increase in the past 24 hours, and a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past month. The market’s focus of disagreement on the future trend is:

• Technical signals: RSI (75) shows overbought, but MACD continues to rise; the key support level of $10,000 may trigger short-term holders’ sell-off if breached.
• Macro variables impact: The Fed’s rate cut expectations (if the rate cut in 2025 exceeds 100 basis points) may provide a ‘double-click’ opportunity for Bitcoin, but stagflation risks could weaken its safe-haven properties.
• Miner behavior dynamics: If the price breaks through $110,000, the selling pressure from miners may rise, but the current low selling levels indicate that the market may enter a period of “calm uptrend”.

Part Two: Market Concerns Behind the “Substantial Progress” in the China-US Trade Agreement

1. White House statement and agreement outline

On May 11, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benett and Trade Representative James Greer jointly announced that substantial progress has been made in the U.S.-China trade negotiations, with the two sides reaching principled agreements in the following areas:

• Market access: China has promised to expand imports of US agricultural products, and the tariff exemptions for some US technology products have been extended.
• Intellectual property protection: Establish a cross-border law enforcement cooperation mechanism to reduce barriers to technology transfer.
• Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Establish a permanent consultation platform to prevent the escalation of trade frictions.

2. Market Reaction and Hidden Concerns

Despite the positive signals released by the officials, the lack of protocol details has led to cautious optimism among investors:

• Uncertainty lingers: The Trump administration’s policy reversals, such as the 2024 electronic tariff exemption ‘day trip’, have weakened market confidence, keeping risk assets under pressure before the agreement is finalized.
• Unresolved structural contradictions: Competitive policies between China and the United States in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, etc. (such as ‘Trade War 2.0’) may continue through non-tariff means.
• Differentiated impact on liquidity: If the protocol drives the US Dollar Index (DXY) lower, Bitcoin may benefit from the restart of the ‘anti-fiat currency’ narrative; however, if the breakdown of negotiations triggers safe-haven demand, gold may divert funds.

3. The chain reaction of the global economy

The potential systemic impact of the easing of Sino-US trade tensions includes:

• Supply chain reshaping: Protocols may accelerate the trend of ‘nearshore outsourcing’, Mexico and Southeast Asia’s manufacturing hub status is rising, and the demand for cross-border cryptocurrency payments is increasing.
• Inflation easing expectations: Tariff reductions are expected to reduce pressure on US CPI, providing room for the Fed to cut rates, indirectly benefiting risk assets.
• Geopolitical risk transfer: If Sino-US cooperation strengthens, ‘alternative crises’ such as Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East situation, etc. may become new sources of market volatility.

Part Three: Market Game and Investment Strategy under the Interweaving of Dual Storylines

1. Bitcoin resonates with macro policies

• Interest rate sensitivity and correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index (0.78) shows that it has not yet moved away from the traditional risk asset framework. If the China-US trade agreement boosts tech stocks, Bitcoin may benefit simultaneously.
• Miner behavior as a leading indicator: Historical data shows that after the selling pressure from miners hits bottom, Bitcoin often enters an upward cycle (such as the bull market after miners surrendered in 2023), the current low selling level may indicate a similar trend.

2. Risk and Opportunity Assessment

• Short-term volatility risk: The stacking of Bitcoin derivatives leverage and unclear details of the Sino-US agreement may cause price fluctuations, with $10,000 as a pivotal point for long and short positions.
• Long-term narrative reinforcement: The average daily inflow of Bitcoin ETF (800 coins) still exceeds the miner output (450 coins), offsetting some market impacts of institutionalization process.

Conclusion: Certainty logic in a complex market

The global market in May 2025 is at a double node of the Bitcoin ‘halving cycle’ and the ‘rebalancing of Sino-US trade relations’. The low selling pressure of miners and the progress of the White House agreement seem independent, but they actually point to a common core proposition: the repricing of assets under liquidity restructuring. Whether Bitcoin breaks through its previous high or the Sino-US agreement is reached, the market will eventually validate one truth - in the collision of macro iron curtain and crypto narrative, only assets that are resilient and efficient can win long-term victory.

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