XRP four-hour chart is brewing a trend choice. The resistance at 1.9 is a psychological barrier, while 1.8 has become a line of defense. Recently, an interesting piece of information emerged — an institution's XRP holdings are floating at a loss of over $220 million. The data is quite striking: they hold 389 million XRP, having invested $950 million at the time, now only worth $720 million. Why is such a large gap still there? There are only two possibilities — one is to stubbornly wait for the bull market turnaround, and the other is that there are other plans behind the scenes. This judgment is key to predicting the subsequent trend. From the candlestick perspective, MACD is already brewing a death cross turning into a golden cross, with signs of a short-term rebound gradually appearing. Regarding resistance levels, 1.876 is the first hurdle, and 1.95 is a hard top; a one-time breakthrough is unlikely. Support is at 1.825; if broken, watch whether 1.77 can hold. Currently, XRP is hovering around 1.86, with trading volume clearly shrinking, and both bulls and bears are waiting for a breakout signal. Trading strategy considerations are as follows: at the 1.876-1.9 level, try reducing positions or lightly shorting, targeting 1.83-1.825. For reverse operations, if the price pulls back to stabilize at 1.77-1.78, take a small long position to catch the rebound to 1.85. The key is discipline — don’t go all-in to gamble on the direction, use small positions to explore, and add more gradually after confirming the trend. The most probable short-term scenario is a rally to test 1.876, even reaching near 1.9, but breaking through 1.95 will not be easy. This large loss by the institution actually signals that selling pressure might be limited — institutions generally do not easily stop-loss and pile into dumps. On the other hand, it also indicates that short-term new funds are insufficient, making the market prone to repeated rises and falls.

Understanding the overall market trend is essential to grasp the true direction of specific cryptocurrencies. This year, a key shift has occurred in the crypto market—retail investors have handed over the baton to institutional players. The data is clear: institutional holdings of BTC have surpassed 24%, while retail investors are net sellers, with 247,000 BTC flowing into professional funds. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to increase their positions. The game has changed entirely. Previously, it was an era of retail speculation chasing rallies and selling off on dips; now, institutions are setting the tone, market volatility is high, but the long-term central trend is gradually moving upward. New tokens like FOLKS are naturally swept up in this wave. The high levels driven by retail hype earlier now require institutional entry. How do they enter? By dumping, shaking out retail investors’ chips, and triggering panic. This decline is the most direct proof. On-chain data tells a clearer story. As of December 26, FOLKS has a circulating supply of 12.42 million tokens, with a maximum supply of 50 million tokens, and a total market cap of $58.09 million, ranking 585th in the market. The 24-hour trading volume is $7.45 million, a 27.9% increase from the previous day—this is a warning signal. The price is declining, but trading volume is expanding, indicating that funds are accumulating at low levels. I reviewed large on-chain transactions; recent weekly large trades over $10 million have increased by 59.26%, while small transactions have decreased by 66%. This stark contrast fully reflects the institutionalization process of the market. It’s not retail investors bottom-fishing; professional funds are strategically deploying. Some may argue, “Institutions also face losses at the start of the year,” predicting BTC will surge to $200,000–$250,000. But yes, price point predictions often miss, yet their judgment on structural trends remains accurate. The trajectories of tokens like SOL and XRP are logically connected.