Tonight, I’ve been watching ETH’s 1-hour chart, and something just feels off—the Bollinger Bands are stretched like they’re about to tear, the MACD is forming a downward death cross, and right at this moment, Fed’s Williams jumps out saying “rate cuts are possible.” This playbook feels both familiar and strange.

Let’s start with the news. Williams’ statement needs to be dissected: the first half, “rate cuts are possible,” sounds nice, but the second half, “inflation won’t hit target until 2027,” is the real message. Translated: in the short term, the market is being painted a rosy picture, ETH might bounce a bit, but don’t expect it to fly too high. Long-term? Inflation isn’t solved, rate cuts aren’t anywhere close, the real trouble is still lurking.

We saw a similar script in December last year. Back then, the Fed hinted at pausing rate hikes, ETH jumped 10% in a day, but a month later, all gains were wiped out. So, with this kind of news, take a quick bite and run—don’t treat it as a full meal.

The technicals are even more dangerous. ETH is now pinned to the lower Bollinger Band, MACD is expanding its death cross below the zero line, and bears clearly haven’t finished. But here’s a detail worth noting—RSI has dropped to 17.7, a number you only see a few times in a decade, showing panic is maxed out.

Remember these key levels:
- 3580 resistance: forget about it in the short term. Unless the Fed announces a cut immediately, even a rebound to around 3000 is a good spot to consider pulling out.
- 2800 is today’s life-or-death line. If we close below this, the next stop is likely 2200. There might be a flash rebound, but the downtrend remains.
- 2200 was the 2023 bull run’s launchpad. If it really drops there, it’s actually an opportunity.

The big players now seem to be digging a pit—using news to steady sentiment while still dumping on the technicals to shake out weak hands. At times like this