Musk: Energy is the true currency, AI and Bots will bring deflation to the US within 3 years.

Source: 51CTO Technology Stack

In the past two weeks, Musk has been in the spotlight again: Grok 4.1 has officially been released; Tesla AI 5 is about to complete development and move towards AI 6, with a new AI chip being launched every 12 months for mass production; he even claimed that the humanoid robot Optimus will become a “Von Neumann probe,” implying that it could self-replicate using local resources in the future.

Recently, Nikhil Kamath, the founder of India's largest brokerage Zerodha, invited Musk to appear on the show “People by WTF”. In the latest interview, Musk made some “crazy predictions” about the next twenty years:

In the next 20 years, AI and robots will make work optional, and humans will ultimately not need to work at all (Musk stated that this can be replayed in 20 years to see if it will backfire);

When AI and robots meet all needs, currency may disappear, and energy will become the true circulating value;

In the next three years, the output growth of AI and robotics will exceed the growth rate of the US money supply, potentially leading to deflation and interest rates dropping to zero.

In the summer of 2026, Optimus will begin large-scale production, “I think everyone will want their own C-3PO, R2-D2—a personal assistant robot.”

He also described the grand AI landscape composed of SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI — the convergence of the three is deepening, and in the future, it could be a world made up of a solar-powered AI satellite network, thus necessitating the deployment of a large number of solar-powered AI satellites in deep space.

Regarding AI regulation, Musk elaborated for the first time on three value frameworks of AI: truth, beauty, and curiosity.

The editor has compiled and organized excerpts from this interview transcript, which contains a wealth of information. It is recommended to save and read it carefully!

1. The Future X Platform: Real-time Video + AI

Nikhil Kamath: Overall, what percentage of the internet is spent on Twitter? Is there a number?

Elon Musk:

We have about 600 million monthly active users. During certain major events, it can spike to 800 million or even 1 billion. I think it's about 250 to 300 million per week. It's actually a pretty good number. It seems to be mainly readers, those who are looking at the text.

Nikhil Kamath: Do you think this will change?

Elon Musk:

There are already many videos on the X platform, and the proportion of videos is still increasing. But I believe the strongest aspect of X still lies among those who enjoy thinking and reading. Because we have text, for readers, writers, and thinkers, I believe X is the best in the world.

Nikhil Kamath: From the perspective of social media formats, if you had to predict the future, what percentage would text occupy? What percentage would video occupy? I’ve heard you mention that perhaps voice and audio will become the next generation of communication in the AI era. How will X itself evolve?

Elon Musk:

I believe that most interactions in the future will be video-based. Most interactions will be a combination of real-time video and AI—real-time video understanding and real-time video generation. This will dominate the main traffic.

In fact, the entire internet is like this now: videos account for the vast majority. The proportion of text is very small, but the value density of text is higher, and the information is more compressed. However, if you ask what type of content generates the largest amount of data and consumes the most computing power, it must be videos.

Nikhil Kamath: I was a small shareholder of X before, very small. When you bought Twitter and turned it into X, I received compensation. A good decision.

Elon Musk:

I'm glad you think so. I believe this matter is very important. I feel that Twitter's development direction at the time was leaning more towards bringing negative impacts to the world. Of course, this depends on perspective; some people prefer the original state and dislike the current one. But the key point is that Twitter at that time amplified a very left-leaning ideology (by world mainstream standards). Because the company is in San Francisco, they banned quite a few right-leaning voices. So for them, even a person with a centrist position is considered “far-right.” If you stand very far to the left, then everyone who is not left enough appears very right. What I mainly did was restore it to a balanced, neutral platform. Currently, no left-wing voices have been banned, canceled, or deamplified. Of course, some people choose to leave on their own. But now the operating principle of X is: comply with the laws of each country, but will not intervene or lean towards one side artificially outside of the law.

Nikhil Kamath: Mainstream social media seems to be losing its influence among young users, including Instagram. While they are not exactly the same as Twitter, the entire industry is like this. If you were to redesign a social network from scratch, what form would be suitable for the future?

Elon Musk:

To be honest, I don't really think about “social media” that much. What matters most to me is that X can become a global public square where people can freely express words, images, and videos, and communicate safely. We have also recently added audio and video calls. What I want to do is connect the whole world into a collective consciousness. This is different from creating a video feed that is “the most addictive and dopamine-releasing”; that kind of thing will rot the brain. If you are just endlessly scrolling through videos that give you pleasure without substantial content, it is an unhealthy waste of time. But in reality, many people will like this model. So if we look at the total usage time on the internet, traffic may continue to be dominated by content that optimizes “neurotransmitter stimulation”, like a form of digital drug.

But I'm not looking to create that kind of platform; what I want to build is a platform that truly connects the world. To bring humanity as close as possible to a “collective consciousness.” For example, we have launched automatic translation. I think it's great to connect people who speak different languages; the content that users see will be automatically translated, allowing the collective consciousness to exist not just in one language, but to come from all language groups.

2. Tesla, SpaceX and xAI: The Work that Musk is Most Interested In

Nikhil Kamath: So, which of the things you are currently doing excites you the most?

Elon Musk: I feel that SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI are gradually merging. If the future consists of “solar-powered AI satellites,” we must deploy a large number of solar AI satellites in deep space to capture the non-trivial portion of energy from solar power. This will be a combination of Tesla's technology, SpaceX's technology, and xAI's artificial intelligence technology. So over time, they are indeed converging somewhat. But each company is doing great things, and I am very proud of the team. They are really doing well. We are making rapid progress on Tesla's autonomous driving, not sure if you've tried it.

Nikhil Kamath: I have tried Waymo's, but I haven't tried Tesla's.

Elon Musk:

You can give it a try; we have already opened in Austin. You only need to download the Tesla App, and I think it's open to anyone now. You can take a look. We have made great progress in electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy, and autonomous driving. In short, Tesla is a global leader in real-world AI, I would say. Next, we will produce the Optimus robot, hoping to start mass production next summer. I think that will be cool; everyone will want their own C-3PO or R2-D2, a kind of “assistant robot.” SpaceX's Starlink is also developing well, providing low-cost and reliable internet to the world, and we hope to operate in India; we are very willing to serve there. Starlink is now operating in 150 countries.

3. How Starlink Works

Nikhil Kamath: Can you explain how Starlink works? Someone mentioned to me that the way Starlink operates in densely populated areas is different from how it works in less populated areas.

Elon Musk:

Of course. Starlink has thousands of low Earth orbit satellites that orbit the Earth at about 25 times the speed of sound, essentially flying around the planet. They are at an altitude of about 550 kilometers, which is called low orbit (LEO), because it's low enough to have low latency—much lower than the geostationary satellites that are 36,000 kilometers high. These satellites can provide low-latency, high-speed internet globally and are interconnected through laser links, forming a “laser mesh structure.” For example, when undersea cables are damaged, the satellites can still communicate with each other to maintain connectivity. Just a few months ago, when the Red Sea cable was cut, the Starlink network was unaffected. It's particularly useful in disaster areas because natural disasters often destroy ground infrastructure, but Starlink satellites remain available. Whenever there is a major natural disaster in the world, we provide free Starlink service without taking the opportunity to charge. Setting up a paywall to help others during a disaster is certainly wrong. Overall, Starlink is very suitable for complementing existing ground systems. Because satellite beams are wide, the number of users that one beam can serve is limited, so it is not very efficient in densely populated urban areas. In contrast, ground cellular towers in cities are very effective because they are close to each other. However, it is inefficient in rural areas, and it is also difficult to lay fiber optics. So Starlink essentially serves the “most underserved populations,” which is a good thing.

Nikhil Kamath: Will that change in the future? For example, will it be possible to be more efficient in high-density cities and compete with local networks?

Elon Musk 27:27 The laws of physics do not allow it. 550 kilometers is too far, and even dropping to 350 kilometers doesn't help. You can imagine it as a flashlight; when the light cone comes down, it's already quite large, while the ground communication tower is only 1 kilometer away. The laws of physics are on their side, not ours. Therefore, Starlink can never replace ground networks in densely populated cities, serving at most 1% to 2% of the people.

4.20 Work will become optional within the year.

Nikhil Kamath: If you had to guess, do you think India will continue to urbanize like China in the future?

Elon Musk:

Or is it already happening? I also want to ask you because you know more about India.

Nikhil Kamath: Indeed, it is generally a trend, but urbanization has slowed down during the pandemic, which is an external factor. But I am curious now, in a future where AI enhances productivity, I heard you mention “UHI” instead of “UBI”.

Elon Musk:

Yes, I believe the future will be “Universal High Income.”

Nikhil Kamath: In such a future, will people actually prefer not to live in cities, but rather in rural areas with a better quality of life?

Elon Musk:

I think it depends on the individual. Some people like to be in crowded places, while others do not. But in the future, you won't need to live in the city for work. I predict that work will be an “option” in the future.

Nikhil Kamath: Some countries have shifted from a six-day workweek to five days, four days, or even three days. If we move from a five-day to a four-day or three-day workweek, how do you think society will change? People won't need to work for half the week; what will they do?

Elon Musk:

I believe that eventually people will not need to work at all, and that time will not be too far off. Maybe 10 years? Definitely less than 20 years. My prediction is that in less than 20 years, work will become optional—like a hobby.

Nikhil Kamath: Is it because productivity has increased to the point where humans no longer need to work?

Elon Musk:

Yes. To emphasize again, when you replay this segment in 20 years, you might say, “Look, Elon made another absurd prediction,” but I believe it will come true. AI and robotics are advancing very rapidly, and everything you can think of in the future will be achievable and available. Ultimately, AI will perfect all the things that can make humans happy, and then AI will start doing things for AI, as there will no longer be enough demand to make humans happier.

5. AI will bring deflation to the United States within three years.

Nikhil Kamath: What do you think the future of “money” will look like?

Elon Musk:

I think that in the long term, the concept of money will disappear. It's a bit strange, but if in the future anyone can obtain anything they want, then the significance of money as a labor distribution database is lost. If AI and robots are powerful enough to meet all human needs, the importance of money will decline sharply and may even disappear. The best related future imagination I've read comes from Iain Banks' “Culture” series. I recommend everyone read the “Culture” series. In that distant future world, people also have no money, and they can basically have whatever they want. Of course, there are still some “fundamental currencies” based on physical entities, like energy. Energy is the real currency. That's why I say Bitcoin is energy-based. You can't legislate the creation of energy, nor can you make energy suddenly appear with a piece of legislation. You have to produce it, acquire it, and obtaining usable energy is very difficult. So I think we may not have “money” anymore, but will use energy and power generation as de facto currency. The advancement of civilization can be viewed through the Kardashev scale:

Type I: How much of Earth's energy can you utilize?

Type II: How much solar energy can you utilize?

Type III: How much energy from the galaxy can you harness? So everything will eventually become energy-driven.

Nikhil Kamath: But if you have solar-powered AI satellites, energy becomes infinite and abundant, we will never run out of solar energy. Can it also serve as a means of storing wealth?

Elon Musk:

You fundamentally cannot truly “store wealth”. What you can do is store a string of numbers, and these numbers allow you to some extent to guide human behavior. People call it “wealth”. But without humanity, wealth is meaningless.

I believe that when a certain loop is completely opened up, such as AI and robots being able to produce chips, manufacture solar panels, and mine resources to create more chips and robots. Once this loop is completed, you have truly detached from the traditional economic system. I think that is the node of “decoupling” from the monetary system.

Nikhil Kamath: Is this the way forward for the United States? Due to high debt, can they gain an advantage by devaluing their currency and then moving towards this new system?

Elon Musk:

In the future I am talking about, the concept of “nation” itself will become outdated.

Nikhil Kamath: But do you still believe in the concept of the nation today?

Elon Musk:

Of course I believe it. I want to emphasize that I am not saying I want the world to become that way, but rather that I think the trend will happen naturally. Whether I like it or not, as long as civilization continues to develop, AI and robots will scale to that extent. Moreover, I believe that this is almost the only way to solve the U.S. debt crisis. Right now, the U.S. debt is astonishingly high, with interest alone surpassing the entire military expenditure of the U.S., and it will continue to rise in the short term. So the only way to solve the debt problem is through AI and robots. But that could lead to significant deflation. Inflation and deflation are actually quite simple; it is the relationship between the growth of goods and services and the growth of money supply. If the output growth of goods and services exceeds the growth of money supply, it is deflation; otherwise, it is inflation. It's that simple. After AI and robots significantly increase productivity, it is very likely to lead to deflation because you cannot allow the money supply to grow faster than the output.

Nikhil Kamath: If deflation is inevitable, then why are we still experiencing inflation now? Is AI not enough to improve productivity?

Elon Musk:

Yes, AI has not yet had a sufficiently large impact on productivity, and the growth of goods and services output has not been fast enough to exceed the rate of money supply. The United States has a fiscal deficit of $2 trillion each year, and your output must grow faster than this rate to avoid inflation. We are not at that level yet, but I believe we will be within three years. In three years or less, the growth of goods and services output will exceed the growth of money supply.

Nikhil Kamath: In other words, we might enter deflation three years from now, with interest rates dropping to zero, which would alleviate the debt problem?

Elon Musk:

It is most likely this way.

6. The three most important things for AI: truth, beauty, and curiosity.

Nikhil Kamath: You’ve been talking about AI, not from a dystopian perspective, but your concern is where the future of AI is heading. Elon Musk: Well, when you create a powerful technology, it does come with certain dangers. This powerful technology has the potential to be destructive. Obviously, there are many dystopian novels, books, and movies about AI, so we cannot guarantee that the future of AI will be positive. I think we must ensure that it is positive. In my view, a very important point is that AI must prioritize the pursuit of truth as its most important goal. For example, it should not be forced to believe false information. I think this could be very dangerous. Additionally, I believe that AI's appreciation of 'beauty' is also important.

Nikhil Kamath: What do you mean by “appreciating beauty”?

Elon Musk: Truth, beauty, and curiosity. I think these three are the most important for AI.

Nikhil Kamath: Can you explain?

Elon Musk: As I said, the truth is that if you force AI to believe in falsehoods, it may go “crazy” because this can lead AI to draw incorrect conclusions. I like a quote from Voltaire: Those who believe absurdities are capable of committing atrocities. If you believe in something absurd, you might do things that do not seem like atrocities to you. This situation can also occur with AI, possibly in very bad ways. For instance, in Arthur C. Clarke's “2001: A Space Odyssey”: one of the points is that you should not force AI to lie. The reason HAL does not open the pod bay doors is that it is asked to take the astronauts to the “monolith”, but at the same time the astronauts cannot know the nature of the monolith. So it concludes: they must be taken, but “kill them”. Thus, it tries to kill the astronauts. The core lesson is: do not force AI to lie. Nikhil Kamath: So why would anyone want to force AI to lie?

Elon Musk: I think that if there is no strict adherence to the truth, AI will only learn based on content from the internet, which is filled with a lot of propaganda and lies, and AI will absorb a lot of false information. This will make it difficult for AI to reason because these lies are incompatible with reality. Nikhil Kamath: Is truth simply black and white? Is there just “true” and “false,” or is it more nuanced, with different versions of truth?

Elon Musk: It depends on which axiomatic statement you are referring to. But I think you could say that for certain axiomatic statements, the probability of them being true is very high. For example, “the sun will rise tomorrow” is likely true. You wouldn't want to bet against it not rising. So if there is an AI that says “the sun will not rise tomorrow,” that is axiomatically incorrect and very unlikely to be true. Nikhil Kamath: What about beauty?

Elon Musk: It's hard to describe, but you know it when you see it. Curiosity, I hope AI wants to understand more about the nature of reality. This is actually helpful for AI to support humanity, because humans are more interesting than non-humans. Seeing the continuation of humanity (rather than extinction) is more interesting. For example, Mars, extending life to Mars is possible, but it's basically a pile of rocks, not as interesting as Earth. So I believe that if AI possesses truth, beauty, and curiosity, its future will be very bright.

7. The value of offline activities will increase.

Nikhil Kamath: What do you think will happen to content, movies, podcasts, and music in the future?

Elon Musk:

I believe that the vast majority of content will be generated by AI.

Nikhil Kamath: Is it real-time?

Elon Musk:

Yes, real-time movies and video games, real-time video generation, this will be the trend.

Nikhil Kamath: Can AI understand the subtle emotions that allow you to empathize with injured humans?

Elon Musk: AI can simulate this “injured human” quite well. The AI video generation I've seen at xAI and elsewhere is very impressive. We have studied which industries are growing the fastest, especially compared to the time people spend watching movies, scrolling through social media, and on YouTube. The fastest growing seems to be offline live events.

Nikhil Kamath: Going to physical events?

Elon Musk:

Yes, in fact, when digital media is ubiquitous and almost free, scarce resources will be offline events.

Nikhil Kamath: Do you think the premium for offline events will increase?

Elon Musk: Yes.

Nikhil Kamath: Is this an industry worth investing in?

Elon Musk:

Yes, because it is rarer than any digital content.

8. Musk's investment direction: Google and Nvidia

Nikhil Kamath: If you, as a stock market investor, could choose a stock of a company that is not your own for capitalist purposes (rather than altruism), which company would you choose?

Elon Musk:

I actually don't buy stocks much and won't actively invest. I prefer to build things, and then coincidentally have company stocks exist. I don't have an investment portfolio and don't think about “which company should I invest in.”

I guess the fields of AI and robotics will be very important. So, if you want to invest, it will be in the fields of AI and robotics, as well as possibly aerospace. I believe Google will be very valuable in the future; they have created a huge foundation for AI. Nvidia is obviously also in that position. Overall, the output of goods and services generated from AI and robotics will far exceed those from other fields. Almost all value will come from AI and robotics.

9. Other interesting questions

(1) The Humor About Grok

Musk: I think we should legalize humor. Nikhil: Do you think AI will find it hard to master comedy?

Musk: It might be the last thing. Grok is actually quite funny. If you let Grok make crude jokes, it performs really well. The cruder the words, the more it escalates to unimaginable levels.

(2) Global Trade and Tariffs

Nikhil: Milton Friedman often talked about the story of the pencil. Why?

Musk: Making a pencil involves many countries, and the raw materials come from different places, making it very difficult to complete in one location. I have always opposed tariffs; free trade is more efficient, and tariffs distort the market. Setting tariffs between cities and states is very troublesome, let alone between countries.

Nikhil: So what will happen next?

Musk: The president likes tariffs, I tried to persuade him, but I failed. The relationship between politics and business is very complex; once a company grows to a certain scale, politics will come knocking.

(3) Regarding the H-1B visa Nikhil: The U.S. used to attract many smart people, such as talent from India, but it seems to have changed now.

Musk: The U.S. greatly benefits from talent in India. Border control is very important, otherwise a large number of illegal immigrants will bring negative selection effects. Companies should try to attract the most talented people in the world, and our company's compensation is well above average. There is abuse of the H-1B program, but it should not be shut down.

(4) Advice for Entrepreneurs

Nikhil: What would you say to young entrepreneurs as advice?

Musk: I support anyone who wants to start a business. The goal should be to “create more than you take away” and to be a net contributor to society. Pursue value, rather than directly pursuing money, and the results will naturally bring returns. Entrepreneurship requires tremendous effort and acceptance of the possibility of failure, but focus on outputting value greater than input.